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statgoon81

Posts: 2168
1/22/17 4:26 PM Quote
Post single game Super Advanced replays involving any season between 1964-1992. Card game only. Please, no automation.

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1982 Atlanta Braves @ 1982 Cincinnati Reds.

Special presentation Strat-O-Casted on Atlanta Superstation TBS.

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Pete Van Weiren:

Welcome to the Strat-O-Matic version of Atlanta Braves' baseball on Superstation TBS. I'll be joined in the booth by my partner Skip Carey. Ernie Johnson will join us as well.

We'll also be joined by Strat-O-Matic game engineer Stat Goon, who will help us out with some explanations about his enhancements for game simulation. He is the premier S-O-M'er in the world today.

And we taped an interview earlier with a young guy by the name of Bill James, who gave us a unique perspective on baseball statistics. He'll talk to us about his upcoming book whose working title is "The 1982 Bill James Baseball Abstract". We'll ask Bill what players today he thinks are underrated and who might be overrated.

We interviewed late night radio talk show host Larry King about his days growing up in Brooklyn following the Dodgers. Larry's show is syndicated throughout the country on the Mutual network. The interview took place in Atlanta a few days ago where Larry was attending a broadcasters' convention while on vacation. Stick around for that on our post game segment with Ernie Johnson.


Today's game features the 1982 Braves traveling to Riverfront Stadium in Cincinnati to take on the 1982 Reds in the opener of a three game series.

Today's broadcast is brought to you by Michelob Beer. Weekends were MADE for Michelob. And by Old Spice deodorant. And Subaru. Stop into your Subaru dealer today.

Stick around after the broadcast of Braves' baseball as Superstation TBS will be airing the "Twilight Zone" followed by "Mission: Impossible". Then later on tonight, stay tuned for Alfred Hitchcock's "Rear Window" starring Grace Kelly and Jimmy Stewart.

All coming up tonight on TBS. Stay with us as Skip Carey will join me with today's starting lineups...

(COMMERCIAL FOR SUBARU, STATE FARM INSURANCE, AND HEFTY GARBAGE BAGS)

Skip Carey:

....Thanks, Pete. Here's the Braves' lineup set to face righthander Greg Harris. And I should point out that Harris is actually ambidexdrious and has experimented pitching both left and right but so far he has only thrown righthanded in his major league career.

For the Braves...

Brett Butler-----cf-1(-2) e2
Glenn Hubbard----2b-2 e16
Dale Murphy------lf-1(-3) e9
Chris Chambliss--1b-2 e12
Bob Horner-------3b-3 e12
C. Washington----rf-3(-2) e16
R. Ramirez-------ss-3 e40
Bruce Benedict---c-2(-1) e3,T-1-3(pb-3)
Rick Camp--------p-2 e24 (#1WR)(+3 hold)--bunting A

And for the Reds....

Eddie Milner-----lf-2(-2) e5
Wayne Krenchicki-3b-3 e22
Dave Concepcion--ss-1 e20
Dan Driessen-----1b-2 e3
Cesar Cedeno-----cf-3(-2) e4
Ron Oester-------2b-2 e26
Paul Householder-rf-2(-2) e3
Alex Trevino-----c-3(-1) e8,T-1-13(pb-3)
Greg Harris------p-3 e31 (#1WS)(-3 hold)--Bunting D

Skip Carey:

Those are your starting lineups for today's game. Back in moment. You're tuned to Atlanta Braves' baseball on Superstation TBS...

[COMMERCIAL FOR PIZZA HUT, CALGON DETERGENT ("ANCIENT CHINESE SECRET"), AND KRYLON SPRAY PAINT (FEATURING JOHNNY BENCH)]

Van Weiren:

We're joined by the Stat Goon who will help explain the starting pitcher situation for this series. Here's the three starters for each team:

Braves Starters for this series:

Rick Camp----(629)
Tommy Boggs--(871)
Phil Niekro--(064)

Reds Starters for this series:

Greg Harris--(971)
Bob Shirley--(820)
Frank Pastore(488)

Stat Goon:

Thanks, Pete. Those numbers in parenthesis represent the dice roll results that selected those six pitchers. This was done using the starting pitcher portion for each team's 1982 Pitcher Regulation Table. The tables accurately represent start probabilities for each pitcher down to the sixth decimal point.

Van Weiren:

So it's accurate as to probability, yet still unpredictable as to who will be selected to pitch each game.

Stat Goon:

Exactly.

Van Weiren:

Okay, Stat Goon. What about the reliever situation? Here's the five on each team that were selected by your Pitcher Regulation Tables:

Braves' Relievers for this game:

Ken Dayley------(861)
Gene Garber-----(088)
Donnie Moore----(835)
Carlos Diaz-----(792)
Larry McWilliams(619)

Reds' Relievers for this game:

Joe Price-------(077)
Tom Hume--------(368-643)
Jim Kern--------(296)
Ben Hayes-------(652)
Brad Lesley-----(591)

Stat Goon:

Note that an additional d1000 (three ten-sided dice read in sequential order) roll was needed to select Tom Hume, as 368- is occupied on tables by Jim Kern, whose roll range for selection ends at 368-600 (he was soon selected anyway). Hume's range starts at 368-601, so we needed to go out to the fifth decimal place to determine that Hume would be one of the five relievers available for the Reds for this contest who could be used in any sequential order. Provided he met eligibility requirements, of course.

I've done away with limiting the number of rolls for selection, then if necessary defaulting to the most frequently used relievers to fill to five. I just roll the dice until I get five relievers, or however many are determined for each team.

This change resulted in hard-throwing young righthander Steve "Bedrock" Bedrosian not being selected for this game for Atlanta. He would have defaulted in under my old formula. His being left off the first-five-that-can-be-used-in-any-sequential-order list for this game means the Braves are going to have to deal with a shaky bullpen situation.

Mind you, with Flex Rosters (see that thread), Bedrosian can still pitch, but those five selected relievers must have come and gone from the game before he and the rest of the carded and subcarded members of the Braves' bullpen can be eligible to pitch. Even then, once the selected pitchers have been exhausted, the next pitcher--each time--is determined only by dice roll selection from the Pitcher Regulation Tables. So there's no guarantee that Bedrosian will be selected for use even if a manager is able to go through all of his selected pitchers. Also, there's the issue of depleting the bench by using so many bullpenners. So that's a deterrent. If Bedrosian does pitch in this game, it likely would occur in extra innings.

Van Weiren:

So it looks like the Reds have a significant bullpen advantage for this game.

Stat Goon:

No doubt. Five solid guys for the Reds. And I'd say Brad "The Animal" Lesley is superb, though with his +4 hold, I'd be careful with him in certain situations.

The Braves have only one clearly effective bullpenner selected from the regulation tables for this game: Veteran sidewinder Gene Garber, who was--along with fellow righthander Bedrosian--stellar in relief for the Braves in 1982. After that, it's lefty Ken Dayley and subcarded righty Donnie Moore. Then, you're really in rough shape with subcarded/"mixed" players--lefties Larry McWilliams and Carlos Diaz.

It's interesting to note that three of the five Braves' relievers for today's game that were chosen by dice roll outcomes using the 1982 Pitcher Regulation Tables, were not carded upon reissue in a way we deem to be satisfactory. Moore and Diaz were not carded and McWilliams was carded for his composite stats which were attained through his hugely disparite performances between the two 1982 National League teams he was employed by.

It's also interesting to note that two key relievers on the Reds--Lesley and Hayes--were originally uncarded. Their subsequent carding was crucial to the enjoyment of replaying those 1982 Reds for game simulation.

Van Weiren:

Very interesting, Stat Goon. Stick around, everybody. We have plenty more pregame show to come here on Superstation TBS.

[COMMERCIAL FOR DR. PEPPER ("BE A PEPPER. DRINK DR. PEPPER"...) DORITOS, AND MICHELOB BEER]

Pete Van Weiren:

Welcome back to our special Strat-O-Cast of Braves' baseball on Superstation TBS. Now let's go down to the field where Ernie Johnson is standing by with Braves' skipper Joe Torre. Ernie...

Ernie Johnson:

Thanks, Pete.

Well, Joe, you saw the results from the Pitcher Regulation Tables. Your thoughts?

1982 Braves' manager Joe Torre:

We always like to have Rock and Garbs (Bedrosian and Garber) available, Ernie. They've been great for us. We wouldn't be where we're at without those two guys at the end of the bullpen. I know Steve's status for pitching today is uncertain, which makes it very important that Camper (starting pitcher Rick Camp) can pitch deep into this game because he's our second best pitcher for today's game after Garber.

Ernie Johnson:

If Rick leaves the game, say, before the seventh inning--for whatever reason--what's the game plan with the bullpen?

Joe Torre:

Depends on the situation at hand, Ernie. But I don't want to use Larry (McWilliams) or Carlos (Diaz) at all unless I'm forced to. That means Dayley, Moore, and Garber would all be likely to see work if the game is close.

Ernie Johnson:

What about the strategy of using up the two pitchers (McWilliams and Diaz) by pitching them to one batter, then using Dayley, Moore, and Garber, which would then allow you to test the Pitcher Regulation Tables in hopes that Bedrosian will be selected in case the game is still in the balance after Garber leaves?

Joe Torre:

That's a lot of hypotheticals, Ernie. The problem with that strategy is we have TWO pitchers selected by the Pitcher Regulation Tables for today's game--not just one--that we would rather not take our chances with in a close game and we can't take the chance of putting either of those two (McWilliams and Diaz) in the game unless--as I said--we are forced to. I don't want either of those guys becoming the pitcher of record. I'd rather just go with Ken (Dayley) and Donnie (Moore) today as the possible bridge to Garbs (Gene Garber).

Historical Narrator:

Today's starter Rick Camp had 21 starts and 30 relief appearances for the 1982 Braves, the ultimate starter/reliever, a versatile pitcher with large sample size innings in both roles. When he's not selected as one of the starters for a three game series, he'll usually be selected for relief duty and would be their most frequently used early/middle relief pitcher, his relief POW (3)•.

The Reds' lefthanded answer to Rick Camp is Bob Shirley, who made 20 starts and had 21 relief appearances. The regulation tables/three game series concept handles this well--for either the single, random game, a series of games, or season replay.

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Editor:

The POW rules mentioned above deal with in-game pitcher regulation. They have been replaced by Yank Numbers with Innings Max, which simulates the pitch count and effectiveness of pitchers for S-O-M game simulation. It is easier to apply than the more protracted POW rules, yet more precise and realistic.

The formula for Yank Numbers: Within pitching role (separate starter and relief roles, if applicable) take the number of innings pitched within pitching role and divide that by games pitched in that role. Then multiply that by the pitcher's WHIP within that role.

We create separate Yank Numbers for the two roles and add Innings Max by researching longest pitching stints in both roles and documenting that.

(See thread "1982 Yank Numbers" in baseball)

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Joe Torre (continued)

Besides, there is nothing close to a guarantee that Bedrosian will be selected from the tables if it gets to that point. And by then, we're depleting our roster--our bench too much.

It's my job as a manager, Ernie, to get my best players in the games as frequently as possible. To push the envelope as far as I can with them. So, sure, I intend on maximizing the innings of my best relievers--Garber and Bedrosian.

On the other side of it, Stat Goon views his job as enforcing these regulations to prevent managers like myself from abusing such privileges. From overusing these guys beyond what the Goon refers to as "his acceptable FUDGE FACTORS". And that rascal (Stat Goon) seems to have found a way to get us managers to put pitchers into a game that would otherwise never be used, if left to our own devices. He finds interesting, creative ways to instill integrity into this game. I respect what he does, even if it goes against my interests at times.

Historical Narrator:

The 1982 Braves' bullpen was unique in that they had two relievers who, along with being two of the best pitchers in baseball that year, pitched a combined total of 241.1 innings of relief (Garber 119.1 and Bedrosian 122--with three starts, giving him 137.2 innings overall). This led Strat-O-Matic to make both their POW's (3)•.

So it's important to regulate the use of relief pitchers very carefully. Here are the ways we do this:

(1) Pitcher Regulation Tables (Note the effect on Bedrosian for this game).

(2) Pitchers may not pitch more than two games in a row, except in rare cases like 1974 Mike Marshall, who pitched 208 innings of relief in 106 appearances. (For practical purposes, the way we set up regulation for three game series, that means relievers may not pitch all three games of a series--regulations do not carry over to the next series. Meaning that if a reliever has pitched in the last two games of a three game series, he can still pitch the first two games of the next series as regulations are self-contained within each series. That way, we don't have to keep track of that from one series to another).

(3) Relief pitchers may not appear in any game that immediately follows a game where they have exceeded their POW-designated innings. Which would mean that if Garber or Bedrosian pitches more than three innings in a game, they are disqualified from the pool of relievers for the next game. Relievers may not exceed their POW innings in any game that immediately follows a game that that pitcher has appeared in.

(4) Relievers may not pitch twice the amount of their POW innings within a single game appearance. So Garber and Bedrosian would be "limited" to 5.2 IP per appearance. That's still a lot. One can see how each can blow way past their real life innings pitched without all the regulations. No designated hitter rule for National League also helps curtail the innings pitched.

Editor:

The POW suggestions made above are used in the absence of Yank Numbers with Innings Max, which are fully documented for 1982.


Ernie Johnson (continued)

Joe, let's talk about the 1982 park effects here at Riverfront Stadium. 18 for singles and for homeruns it's just 1 for lefties and 7 for righties. Do park effects factor into how you manage a game?

Joe Torre:

As far as the homerun factor, you want guys who play into that one way or another, so it can affect certain platoon options.

As far as the singles--being 18 here in Cincinnati--that can make it tough for your starting pitcher to avoid reaching his POW.

Historical Narrator:

Point of weakness--the inning designated for each pitcher where that pitcher's effectiveness may be reduced--in game simulation--POW is generally based on a pitcher's average innings pitched per starting or relieving appearance. Starting pitcher POW is reached when, during his designated POW inning, that pitcher gives up a combination of three hits/walks/HBP within any inning upon entering his designated POW inning.

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Editor:

POW rules, as mentioned by a previous edit, have been replaced by Yank Numbers with Innings Max and might continue to be used in the manner suggested in this account for seasons that do not have the Yank Numbers documented yet.

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Joe Torre:

Camper's (Today's starter Rick Camp) POW is (6)•, so I'm not counting on Rick lasting any longer than that, but you never know. Those Riverfront Stadium singles (1-18) are pesky and may knock a lot of pitchers out of a game.

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Editor: Rick Camp's 1982 Yank Numbers: 8.475/2.433 (as starter/as reliever) and Innings Max of 9/3.1 (as starter/as reliever)

This means, for example, as a starter today Camp would not have the option of remaining in the contest after surrendering more than 8.475 qualifiers (walks plus hits plus HBP--fraction settled by d1000 rolls).

Note: This game was played using modified POW rules. Yank Numbers were not yet created when this game was completed.

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Ernie Johnson:

If you played here, Joe, you may have won more than just the one batting title you got in your MVP year, 1971.

Joe Torre:

I won a batting title the Ted Williams way, Ernie. I got no leg hits, that's for sure (laughs). Strat-O-Matic had me rated an "8" runner--as bad as it gets (laughs). But the Busch Stadium Park effect singles were 14 that year, so I guess I can't complain. But the park effect homers were just 4, so I had some of those taken away from me, Ernie.

Ernie Johnson:

Well, Joe, good luck today and thanks for stopping by and doing this.

Joe Torre:

Glad to do it, Ernie.

Ernie Johnson:

Stay tuned for more pregame coverage as the Braves get set to take on the Reds here on Superstation TBS.

[COMMERCIAL FOR BINACA BREATH SPRAY (TRY THE BINACA BLAST!), RICE-A-RONI (THE SAN FRANCISCO TREAT), AND KING VITAMIN CEREAL (HAVE BREAKFAST WITH THE KING!].


Pete Van Weiren:

Welcome back to our special Strat-O-Cast of this game. Let's go back down on the field where Ernie is standing by with Reds' manager John McNamara.

Historical Narrator:

Veteran manager John McNamara would be let go by the 1982 Reds after his team posted a 34-58 record after 92 games. He was replaced by one of his coaches--Russ Nixon--who managed the Reds the rest of the season with similar results.

Ernie Johnson, Sr. (1924-2011) is not to be confused with his son--Ernie, Jr. (1956-). Senior pitched for the Braves in the 1950's. Ernie Junior has followed his father in broadcasting and has also worked on Superstation TBS.

Ernie Johnson, Sr.:

We've got your starting lineup, Mac, so who's available on your bench for today's game?

Reds' manager John McNamara:

Ernie, we've got a flex roster situation and we will have....(list of Reds' players)

Johnny Bench----- 3b-4 e32/1b-3 e24/c-3(+2) e2, T-1-5(pb-0)RHB
Dave Van Gorder---c-4(+2) e5, T-1-6(pb-2)RHB
Mike O'Berry------c-2(-2) e12, T-1-3(pb-0)[sub card]/RHB
Tom Lawless-------2b-3 e20 [*2-7,12/-(18-15)] 17 Runner/RHB
Rafael Landestoy--3b-3 e8/2b-3e21/ss-4 e22/lf-4(0) e25/ 4/-(20/6)
Landestoy(cont.)--15 Runner/bunting-A/switch hitter
Duane Walker------lf/rf-3(-1) e3/cf-4/*4-6/-(17-12)/15 Runner/LHB
Mike Vail---------lf/rf-4(+1) e4/reverse RHB
Larry Biittner----lf/rf-4(+2) e7/1b-4e 12--LHB
Gary Redus--------lf-4(-1) e8/*3-8,11/-(20-16)--16 Runner--RHB
German Barranca---2b-4 e71/*5/-(20-13)--15 Runner [sub card]--LHB
Clint Hurdle------lf/rf-4(+1) e20--13 Runner [sub card]--LHB

Reds' manager John McNamara (continued):

We've got Krenchicki platooning with Bench at third and Landestoy as the defensive replacement.

Landestoy is also a vital bench player for us because he's our only position player who is an "A" bunter. So he can get a sacrifice hit, bunt base hit, or squeeze in a runner in a big spot for us. I was glad to see that Rafael's error rating at third base was updated upon reissue from 23 to 8. So Landestoy is a 3 e8, which is great because we know how important those error ratings are at the corners.

Walker will occasionally start in left or right against reverse lefties and platoon righties or be a pinch-runner and maybe pinch hitter because he's clutch-favorable. But he struggles at the plate, so I try to limit his at bats from what they have been.

Vail will start in left against reverse righties and pinch hit. He's clutch-favorable.

Biittner is going to pinch hit against righties and possibly go to the outfield on double switches if we're behind in the game. Very good hitter, though he's anti-clutch. If Driessen gets hurt or gets pinch hit for when a lefty reliever comes in, Larry's a fine option at first base, especially since Strat-O-Matic updated his error rating from 25 for the original issue to 12 for the reissue. So Biittner is a satisfactory 4 e12 now at first base. Cedeno can move from centerfield to first base, where he is rated a 4 e15, forming a platoon with Driessen. Bench can play there, too. So we're well covered there.

Redus will pinch run and spot start in left against reverse righties or platoon lefties, especially if they don't hold runners well.

Historical Narrator:

Redus' steal ratings--posted above--were derived from these 1982 stats accrued by him:

SBO (stolen base opportunities) total: 29
Stolen Bases: 11
Caught stealing: 2 (both second base)
3 steals of third
1 steal of home
0 times picked off

The keys to his SADV steal rating were his 11 steals in just 29 "steal opportunities", and his 85% success rate.

Mike O'Berry was not carded upon reissue. He started 14 games at catcher for the 1982 Reds and appeared in 9 additional games at catcher for them. He will be given most of his 1981 defensive card values, as posted above. He caught 45% of base stealers compared to Reds' most used 1982 catcher Alex Trevino's 29%. O'Berry could be given a -3 arm but I stay with the -2 he had in 1981 due to his fairly small sample size for 1982. O'Berry could be used as a starter when corresponding randomly selected game logs feature him as such, but he will be used mostly as a defensive replacement and situational pinch hitter--.364 OBP (mostly from walks) often for the pitching spot and usually leading off an inning because he's just an on base guy who doesn't drive in runs.

On such occasions that 1982 O'Berry reaches base, he'll often be pinch run for by Redus or others unless the Reds are ahead and prefer his defense.

As a substitute for uncarded 1982 Mike O'Berry, 1981 Otto Velez, whose pro-rated batting average and OBP correspond to 1982 O'Berry's, is an okay fit. SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS: convert all extra base hits on the 1981 Velez sub card to single* and make 1982 O'Berry W/W power.

German Barranca was never issued a card by Strat-O-Matic in his brief and spotty MLB career. Barranca was a left-handed hitter who started three games at second base in 1982, also appearing at second in three other games, making three errors. A .824 fielding average.

He was mainly a pinch hitter for those 1982 Reds, using 41 of his 51 at bats in that role. He totaled 54 plate appearances in 46 games played in 1982.

Barranca had eight plate appearances against lefties, managing zero hits, one walk, and one sacrifice bunt. So his sub card against lefties is PHC #1WL, bunting-B.

1982 German Barranca hit .289 against righthanded pitchers and will use 1982 teammate Cesar Cedeno's hitting card as a sub against righties because Cedeno also hit .289 (overall).

SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS for 1982 German Barranca's sub card. Barranca had one double, THREE TRIPLES, and zero homeruns against righties in 1982. His outlier triples accounted for approx. 23% of his total hits in 1982 (3 triples divided by 13 overall hits).

So we use the 1982 Strat-O-Matic card featuring teammate Cesar Cedeno's composite hitting values in order to replicate Barranca's 1982 batting average against righthanded pitching (again--.289). Then, whenever Barranca gets a hit that was generated from reading off either his sub card or the pitching card, we roll the d1000 dice and we designate a roll range of 000-001 to 230-769 (automatic triple result) within the PDR (Preliminary Dice Roll) that represents 1982 Barranca's triples-per-hit percentage and is used before continuing with the reading of hit results off the cards.

If the d1000 roll falls outside that AUTOMATIC TRIPLE range, proceed with the hit result read. If the read was any extra base hit--except for a double read resulting from a pitcher's card outcome--convert it to single*.

Also, roll again on all walks and HBP resulting from Barranca's results off the Cedeno sub card.

As mentioned above, we rated Barranca 4 e71 at second base based on his fielding stats and amount of time spent defensively.


1982 uncarded Clint Hurdle: 34 AB's .206/.270/.235---PHC #4WL. Nine starts in left field, 19 games played.


Reds' 1982 manager John McNamara (continued):

So that's it, Ernie.

Ernie Johnson:

Thanks for joining us on the pregame show, John, and best of luck.

John McNamara:

Thanks, Ernie.

Ernie Johnson:

Back with much more pregame show. We're just getting warmed up for baseball so stay tuned. This is the special Strat-O-Cast of Braves' baseball on Superstation TBS.


[COMMERCIAL FOR RADIO SHACK ("A TANDY COMPANY"), HONEYCOMB BREAKFAST CEREAL ("COME TO THE HONEYCOMB HIDEOUT"), AND WEEBLES ("WEEBLES WOBBLE BUT THEY DON'T FALL DOWN"--BY HASBRO)]

MLB Promo: BASEBALL FEVER.........CATCH IT!


Van Weiren:

Welcome back to the Strat-O-Cast of Braves' baseball on Superstation TBS.

We've discussed the Reds' bench possibilities, now let's take a look at the Atlanta bench for today's game...

Biff Pocoroba------c-4(+2) e4,T-1-3(pb-0)/3b-4 e31/LHB
Matt Sinatro-------c-4(+3) e3,T-1-2(pb-5)/RHB
Larry Whisenton----lf/rf-4(+1) e11/LHB
Jerry Royster------lf-2(+2) e15/3b-2 e27/2b-3 e47/ss-4 e27/RHB
Terry Harper-------lf/rf-2(0) e4/RHB
Rufino Linares-----lf/rf-4(+1) e8/RHB
Bob Watson---------1b-4 e4/lf-4(+3) e16/RHB
Randy G. Johnson---2b-2 e47/3b-3 e37/subcard 1992 John Van der Wal/RHB
Ken Smith----------1b-4 e30/lf-4(+1) e16/subcard 1992 Alex Arias---
----------------------convert doubles on subcard to single*/LHB

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Historical narrator:

WKRP In Cincinnati finished its run in 1982. Tim Reid, who played Venus Flytrap (real name Gordon Sims) on the show, was in Cincinnati to throw out the first ball for this game.

Tim was wearing a Reds starter jacket similar to the one he and other cast members wore on the show. He requested that Johnny Bench be the man to catch his pitch, though John was not catching anymore. Bench cheerfully obliged, smiles and handshakes ensued and it was on to the National Anthem.

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Public Address Announcer:

Ladies and gentleman: will you please rise and join artist and musician Marty Balin in the singing of God Bless America...

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Historical Narrator:

Founding member of Jefferson Airplane Marty Balin returns to his place of birth--the Queen City--Cincinnati, Ohio.

Balin surprised the music world last year (1981) with his hit single "Hearts", which made it all the way to #8 on the Billboard Hot 100 charts. It ended up at #41 on the Year-end Hot 100 singles for 1981, the same year MTV (Music Television) launched.

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Pete Van Weiren:

We're ready for the start of today's game...

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Game Account:

Reds opened the scoring in bottom 5th on run scoring single by Driessen and sacrifice fly by Cedeno off starter Rick Camp. 2-0 Reds after five.

Murphy and Horner hit solo homers off Reds starter Greg Harris in the 6th. Murphy rolled a 1-11 for a park effect HR. 1-7 chance at Riverfront. Rolled 7. Horner rolled 6-9 where solid N-HR was located on the card of Greg Harris.

2-2 score after five and one half innings.

Bottom 6th. Alex Trevino leads off with triple. Rolled 6-8 (triple 1-3/single**4-20--rolled 2 for triple--Trevino keeps triple because had had three in 355 at bats in 1982.

Tom Hume, who replaced Harris after the Horner homer, is pinch hit for by lefty hitter Larry Biittner.

Starter Rick Camp is replaced by lefty Ken Dayley.

Biitner--the announced pinch hitter--is replaced by Johnny Bench, who gives the Reds a 3-2 lead by slamming a ringing double into the corner in left, scoring Trevino.

Two outs later, Dave Concepcion gets a park effect single, Bench to third. Driessen walks to load bases.

Uncarded righty Donnie Moore came in to replace Dayley. At the time this game was played, 1971 Doyle Alexander was the sub card choice for Moore. Composite/percentage roll method was applied. Since then, upgrades have been made for pitcher sub cards and 1982 Braves Donnie Moore now uses 1982 Tim Stoddard (left side for left side) and 1982 Dan Schatzeder composite card (left side for right side).

Cedeno rolled 2-3, an anti-clutch single read--convert to lineout--end of inning. Clutch effects cost Reds at least two runs there.

3-2 Reds after six innings.

With righty reliever Ben Hayes--carded only upon reissue--in the game for the Reds, lefty pinch hitter Larry Whisenton rolls a 1-4 (HR 1-8, triple 9-20) and settles for the leadoff triple.

Brett Butler then tests Reds centerfielder Cesar Cedeno with a FLY(cf)X that the range-3 Cedeno plays into a game tying single. 3-3.

Glenn Hubbard sacrifices Butler to second base. The bunt play produced a six roll from the two d6 which resulted in a DEFENSE read from the bunt chart. The odd d6 determined that first baseman Dan Driessen fielded the bunt. Under our playing tips for that, not only is the fielder range added to lead runner (Butler) speed--per S-O-M rules--but fielder error rating is tested. Driessen did not err.

Dale Murphy walked. Runners on first and second. Chambliss popped out to the catcher. Two out. A 2-12 was rolled with Horner up resulting in another anti-clutch single--converted to a lineout--likely costing the Braves at least one run.

3-3 score after six and one half innings.

Top of 8th.

Righty Jim Kern enters game for the Reds. He retires Claudell Washington. Rafael Ramirez gets a park effect single (0 hold for Kern, catcher Trevino -1, Ramirez *2-9/-(15-13) stealing). Reds elect to hold Ramirez at first. Braves choose not to attempt 1-12 steal chance if obtaining good lead.

Bruce Benedict gets a 4-12 roll resulting in a park effect HR (1-7 for righty hitters at Riverfront). But if he gets it he'll have to settle for single** because he is weak power versus righties. Result is a fly out.

Donnie Moore is next and the decision is made to let him bat because he is the lone serviceable pitching bridge to closer Gene Garber--at least as determined for this game (Bedrosian is not eligible unless undesirables McWilliams and Diaz have made appearances--see pregame regulation descriptions).

Uncarded 1982 Donnie Moore was a lifetime .281 hitter--exceptional for a pitcher--but I had to make him a 1WL because of his zero for one 1982 Braves hitting performance.

But a pitcher card roll resulted. 6-4. GB(3b)X

Third baseman Wayne Krenchicki was left in the game to hit--unfavorably-- against lefty reliever Ken Dayley in the 6th. It was an important spot for the Reds to get an insurance run after Bench delivered the go ahead run with his pinch double two batters earlier. But Ron Oester got injured in the fourth inning, leaving the Reds thin in their options and it was felt that with the lead it was better to have Krenchicki at third instead of Bench, who could have replaced Krenchicki, whose spot in the order could favorably have been assumed by the next Reds pitcher.

Krenchicki's defense at third--though superior to what Bench would have offered--was not good enough here. He played Moore's grounder into a single*, Ramirez to second with two out.

Weak hitting Brett Butler is due up as a "clutch" hitting situation presents itself. In this situation, Butler has no RBI chances on his card and is replaced by clutch-favorable veteran backstop and lefty hitter Biff Pocoroba.

Kern then unleashes a wild pitch (using S-O-M Rule 29.1). Jim is rated wp-20 on his Reds card, the maximum wild pitch number. Didn't even need to roll the d20 after it originally read 1.

A 1-7 is rolled and it results in a card reading with a horseshoe (clutch factor) in front of a "fly(cf)B?", meaning this time an out reading is converted to a single** because of the two-outs-runner(s) in scoring position status for Atlanta.

For the third straight inning, clutch factor has affected the amount of runs that were tallied.

Braves take a 5-3 lead on the clutch-factored, two-out, two-run, pinch single** by Pocoroba.

Garber came in in the bottom of the 8th and retired all six Reds he faced to save the win for Moore.

Braves win this one 5-3.

Clutch factor in Strat-O-Matic simulation is favorable to pitching roughly two-thirds of the time. And that was exactly the case in this contest.

Good afternoon from Cincinnati.

Stay tuned for an episode of Barney Miller, joined in progress.





















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