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SADV XChart 
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statgoon81
Posts: 2257
2/4/19 4:51 PM
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The current Xchart error ratings are screwed up here and there. Too much to bother detailing.
The error ratings and error probabilities are fairly accurate and produce overall error totals that will seem realistic.
The d6 format does not allow for making fine distinctions for fielding averages.
My "Error Numbers" are a vast improvement and provide relative accuracy and total transparency.
Having reformatted fielder error probabilities on X rolls, I can now move on with ROE (reached on error) adjustment numbers for every hitter.
***************************************************
Here's the probability percentages for SAVD Xchart error rolls.
RollPercentageCombinations
30138881
40277772
50416663
60555554
70694445
80833336
90972227
101111118
111111118
120972227
130833336
140694445
150555554
160416663
170277772
180138881
**************************************
Example:
1982 Wayne Tolleson
Position: Shortstop
Chances: 120
Errors: 5
Fielding percentage: 958333 (approx. 95.8 %)
Error percentage: 041666 (approx. 4.2 %)
Tolleson's 1982 SOM rating at shortstop: 4 e36
e36 on SOM SADV Xchart: 13,15, 17 result is E1. 16 result is E2.
Using the chart posted above:
13: .083333
15: .055555
16: .041666
17: .027777
Sum: .208333
208333 is the exact percentage outcome when Tolleson's error percentage (.041666) is multiplied by exactly five.
So that's it. Five is the number to use to multiply the error percentage by for the position of shortstop for SOM Xchart error simulation. However, this is not consistent within the Xchart, but that is due to flaws within the Xchart. Overall, five appears to be the magic multiplication number for shortstop position.
But even if five is a bit off, we still achieve accuracy in a relative fashion (playertoplayer) something I know does not exist in the SOM Xchart error simulation.
***************************************************************************
Now, let's have fun processing a hypothetical error chance for 1982 Wayne Tolleson in SOM game simulation.
Oakland @ Texas
Rickey Henderson leads off game with a 65 pitcher card roll off Frank Tanana, resulting in a GB(ss)X. Instead of rolling the three d6 along with the d20, we roll the d1000 along with the d20.
First, we incorporate the ROE (reached on error) factor.
1982 AL ROE/AT BATS: 1022/77886 (.013122)
013122 is the percentage to divide by to achieve individual hitter ROE adjustment numbers.
Rickey Henderson had 13 ROE in 536 at bats (024254). That ROE percentage is divided by the league ROE average.
Henderson's ROE adjustment number is 1.848323, approx. 185 percent of the league average for 1982.
We multiply that adjustment number by Tolleson's adjustedforXchart error percentage of 208333.
We get 385667. This is Tolleson's adjusted Xchart error percentage when Rickey Henderson hits a grounder his way.
Then, we take note of the percentage chance of the two base error, which in this case was exactly 20 (41666 divided by 208333). So, for shortstop errors, we multiply the adjusted error number by 20 percent and place that totalfor convenience of figuringat the front end of the adjusted error number.
2 base error: 000001 to 077133
1 base error: 077134 to 385667
Henderson's at bat:
d20 result9 (G3#). Potential groundout to ss.
d1000 result: 233, resulting in a 1base error on Tolleson.
We then record this as an ROE effect error, since the error roll was within Tolleson's unadjusted or normal "out range". (Roll outcome was only within the adjusted error range).
**************************************************************************
Multiplication numbers (adjusted for XChart) for error percentages at each infield position:
1B: 27
2B: 7
SS: 5
3B: 7

Pitcher: 4.5
GB(p)X refer to unadjusted error percentage.
Throws to first upon d20 result of 1 when holding runner: refer to adjusted error percentage.
Also refer to adjusted error percentage when pitcher fields bunts with DEFENSE or SPEED outcomes from SADV Miscellaneous Chart for sacrifice and squeeze bunts.

Outfield: 7
Use unadjusted error percentage for the error range on dropped flyballs and use the adjusted error percentage for throwing error range when defense tries to throw out baserunners.
The adjusted error percentages are adjusted for Xroll outcomes and are further adjusted when ROE factor is applied. ROE adjustment numbers are not used on throwing errors, of course.
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