SADV X-Chart | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 2270
2/4/19 4:51 PM Quote
The current X-chart error ratings are screwed up here and there. Too much to bother detailing.

The error ratings and error probabilities are fairly accurate and produce overall error totals that will seem realistic.

The d6 format does not allow for making fine distinctions for fielding averages.

My "Error Numbers" are a vast improvement and provide relative accuracy and total transparency.

Having reformatted fielder error probabilities on X rolls, I can now move on with ROE (reached on error) adjustment numbers for every hitter.
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Here's the probability percentages for SAVD X-chart error rolls.

Roll-----Percentage----Combinations
3------------013-888-----------1
4------------027-777-----------2
5------------041-666-----------3
6------------055-555-----------4
7------------069-444-----------5
8------------083-333-----------6
9------------097-222-----------7
10----------111-111-----------8
11----------111-111-----------8
12----------097-222-----------7
13----------083-333-----------6
14----------069-444-----------5
15----------055-555-----------4
16----------041-666-----------3
17----------027-777-----------2
18----------013-888-----------1
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Example:

1982 Wayne Tolleson

Position: Shortstop

Chances: 120

Errors: 5

Fielding percentage: 958-333 (approx. 95.8 %)

Error percentage: 041-666 (approx. 4.2 %)

Tolleson's 1982 S-O-M rating at shortstop: 4 e36

e36 on S-O-M SADV X-chart: 13,15, 17 result is E1. 16 result is E2.

Using the chart posted above:

13: .083-333
15: .055-555
16: .041-666
17: .027-777

Sum: .208-333

208-333 is the exact percentage outcome when Tolleson's error percentage (.041-666) is multiplied by exactly five.

So that's it. Five is the number to use to multiply the error percentage by for the position of shortstop for S-O-M X-chart error simulation. However, this is not consistent within the X-chart, but that is due to flaws within the X-chart. Overall, five appears to be the magic multiplication number for shortstop position.

But even if five is a bit off, we still achieve accuracy in a relative fashion (player-to-player) something I know does not exist in the S-O-M X-chart error simulation.
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Now, let's have fun processing a hypothetical error chance for 1982 Wayne Tolleson in S-O-M game simulation.

Oakland @ Texas

Rickey Henderson leads off game with a 6-5 pitcher card roll off Frank Tanana, resulting in a GB(ss)X. Instead of rolling the three d6 along with the d20, we roll the d1000 along with the d20.

First, we incorporate the ROE (reached on error) factor.

1982 AL ROE/AT BATS: 1022/77886 (.013-122)

013-122 is the percentage to divide by to achieve individual hitter ROE adjustment numbers.

Rickey Henderson had 13 ROE in 536 at bats (024-254). That ROE percentage is divided by the league ROE average.

Henderson's ROE adjustment number is 1.848-323, approx. 185 percent of the league average for 1982.

We multiply that adjustment number by Tolleson's adjusted-for-X-chart error percentage of 208-333.

We get 385-667. This is Tolleson's adjusted X-chart error percentage when Rickey Henderson hits a grounder his way.

Then, we take note of the percentage chance of the two base error, which in this case was exactly 20 (41-666 divided by 208-333). So, for shortstop errors, we multiply the adjusted error number by 20 percent and place that total--for convenience of figuring--at the front end of the adjusted error number.

2 base error: 000-001 to 077-133
1 base error: 077-134 to 385-667

Henderson's at bat:

d20 result----9 (G3#). Potential groundout to ss.

d1000 result: 233, resulting in a 1-base error on Tolleson.

We then record this as an ROE effect error, since the error roll was within Tolleson's unadjusted or normal "out range". (Roll outcome was only within the adjusted error range).
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Multiplication numbers (adjusted for X-Chart) for error percentages at each infield position:

1B: 27
2B: 7
SS: 5
3B: 7
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Pitcher: 4.5

GB(p)X refer to unadjusted error percentage.

Throws to first upon d20 result of 1 when holding runner: refer to adjusted error percentage.

Also refer to adjusted error percentage when pitcher fields bunts with DEFENSE or SPEED outcomes from SADV Miscellaneous Chart for sacrifice and squeeze bunts.
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Outfield: 7

Use unadjusted error percentage for the error range on dropped flyballs and use the adjusted error percentage for throwing error range when defense tries to throw out baserunners.

The adjusted error percentages are adjusted for X-roll outcomes and are further adjusted when ROE factor is applied. ROE adjustment numbers are not used on throwing errors, of course.


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