Lamar Jackson & Flat Pass QB Runs | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 2196
11/21/18 10:47 PM Quote
Ravens beat the Bengals 24-21 in Baltimore this past Sunday, November 18, 2018.

In that game, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, starting his first NFL game, completed 13 of 19 passes for 150 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception.

Jackson was the Ravens first round pick (32 overall) in the 2018 NFL draft.

Ravens running back Gus Edwards rushed 17 times for 115 yards and one touchdown.

Overall, the Ravens rushed 54 times for 265 yards and two touchdowns.

Lamar Jackson--yes quarterback Lamar Jackson--accounted for most of the rest of Baltimore's rushing attempts and yards, running 27 times for 117 yards.

So, obviously, Lamar Jackson is a quarterback/running back hybrid. No quarterback has run that many times in a modern NFL game.

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I use a Preliminary Dice Roll (PDR) to allow for flat pass quarterback runs in S-O-M football. The flat pass QB run percentages are formulated with the short and long pass columns of the quarterback "must run" in mind. So percentages are adjusted downward.

In my S-O-M football game, Lamar Jackson would--at the time I write this--have a flat pass run probability of 512-548, meaning he'd run approx. 51.3 percent of the time when Ravens call for flat pass.

Lamar Jackson has rushed 55 times out of his 89 dropbacks so far this year. Tremendous quarterback outlier. He's averaged 4.65 yards per rush, not so special.

Some other outlier flat pass QB run percentages:

1988 Ricky Turner: 634-146 (22 dropbacks--wishbone/wildcat) 4th Colts QB carded by S-O-M. Very rare example of four QB's carded for one team.

1996 Kordell Stewart: 434-447 (72 dropbacks--wildcat) also issued receiver card by S-O-M that year. Extremely rare two card player.

2009 Michael Vick: 545-545 (37 dropbacks--wildcat)

2011 Tim Tebow: 205-281 (429 dropbacks--all time leader in flat pass run percentage for qualifiers)

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In 1990, late in a game at Philadelphia, KR-RB Brian Mitchell of the Redskins took over as an emergency quarterback. Starter Mark Rypien was inactive for the game with an injury, so Jeff Rutledge started and he and backup Stan Humphries were knocked out of the game with injuries (the famed "body bag" game where nine Redskins had to leave the game with injuries).

Mitchell led a drive which resulted in a touchdown, but rushed just twice in his nine dropbacks. So his adjusted flat pass runs were a modest 16 percent, approx. but that was low sample and situational.

I subcarded Mitchell as the fourth 1990 Redskins QB, with all stat nuances included as always.

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Related threads:

Quarterback Runs

Wildcat Quarterbacks

S-O-M Football Trivia (2011 Tebow flat pass run formulation)









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