1982: Reds 6 Braves 5 In Game Two | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 2127
5/28/18 6:02 AM Quote


Key:

(IP)---H R ER W

*Pitched second game in a row. Not eligible for next game (rubber game of three game series).

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Reds pitchers

Shirley------ (2)--- 6 4 4 0 (Removed for pinch hitter)
Lesley------- (2)--- 1 0 0 1
Hayes*------(1.2)----2 1 1 0
Price---------(0.1)--- 1 0 0 0 (W, 1-0)
Kern*---------(3)--- 3 0 0 0 (SV, 1) Yank Number avoided (036 fraction roll)

Kern pitched 1.2 innings without giving up any qualifiers after low d1000 fraction roll avoided knockout. (Yank Number 2.180)

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Braves Pitchers

Boggs------(2.1)---6 2 1 1 (Yank Number exceeded--932 d1000 fraction roll)
D.Moore*---(2.2)---2 1 1 0
Garber*----(0.1)---2 1 1 0 (Yank Number exceeded--959 d1000 fraction roll)
Cowley-----(0.0)---0 1 0 0
McWilliams-(0.0)---2 1 1 0 (L, 0-1)
Alvarez----(0.1)---1 0 0 0
Bedrosian--(2.1)---0 0 0 0 (sixth reliever; post regulation d1000 selection)

Garber snakebit by high fraction roll. Auto knockout after facing just two batters, who both reached on singles. (Yank Number 1.913). TOUGH regulation!

Talk about snakebit. Bedrosian NOT selected from pregame pitcher regulation d1000 roll for second straight game! But after Braves exhaust their five selected bullpenners, Bedrosian is first pitcher selected by d1000 when Braves go to their sixth reliever.

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Braves 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ---- 5 13 3
Reds----0 1 1 0 1 3 0 0 X ---- 6 13 0

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Starting lineups

Braves

Jerry Royster lf-2(+2) e15
Glenn Hubbard 2b-2 e16
Dale Murphy cf-1(-3) e9
Terry Harper rf-2(0) e4
Bob Horner 3b-3 e12
Bob Watson 1b-4 e4
Rafael Ramirez ss-3 e40
Bruce Benedict c-2(-1) e3, T-1-3(pb-3)
Tommy Boggs p-4 e51 #3WR (286/286/286) vs. Right (000/000/000) vs. Left (PDR)

Reds

Eddie Milner lf-2(-2) e5
Wayne Krenchicki 3b-3 e22
Dave Concepcion ss-1 e20
Dan Driessen 1b-2 e3
Cesar Cedeno cf-3(-2) e4
Ron Oester 2b-2 e26
Paul Householder rf-2(-2) e3
Dave Van Gorder c-4(+2) e5,T-1-6(pb-2)
Bob Shirley p-2 e19 #2WR (167/189/167) vs. Right (000/000/000) vs. Left

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Park effect singles 18 (Riverfront)

Single effected at bats:

Watson single*
Benedict single*
Householder lineout
Driessen single*
Bench PH single*
Murphy single*

83.3 percent conversion on 90 percent probability

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Park effect homeruns: 1 for left/ 7 for right

Braves' cleanup hitter Terry Harper got 4:11 roll on Shirley's card in the first inning for 7 chance HR with Hubbard on second and Murphy on first. d20 roll 2 for three-run jack.

That was the game's lone dinger.

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Doubles

Royster, Milner 2, Landestoy (PH)

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Triples

None.

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Balks

Brad Lesley, d20 roll 2 with Terry Harper on second, top 3rd.

d6 roll within 1-3 range for balk test.

Lesley balk number is 7.

d20 roll was 2. Balk.

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Wild pitches

None.

Passed balls

None.
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Fielding range effected plays

Hubbard single on fly(rf) X (Householder)
Benedict single on GB(2b) X (Oester)
Chambliss single on fly(cf) X (Cedeno)
Householder single on GB(2b) X (Hubbard)
Ramirez single on GB(3b) X (Landestoy)

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Player limit per game per team:

21 (does not include pitchers used only as pinch runners)

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Braves used 19 players

Reds used 19 players

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Players who were announced as pinch hitters but were but were replaced by another pinch hitter upon pitching change

Three:

Biff Pocoroba (Claudell Washington singled off lefty Joe Price)

Larry Biittner (Johnny Bench singled off Larry McWilliams)

Gary Redus (Rafael Landestoy doubled off Jose Alverez--game winning RBI in bottom of sixth).

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Squeeze attempts

Rafael Landestoy in bottom sixth with Bench on third and Milner on second with one out and game tied 5-5.

Defense: CORNERS IN

SUICIDE SQUEEZE called by offense

Landestoy A bunter downgraded to B

Roll 10 on squeeze chart

"Batter misses pitch, runner on third must attempt steal of home."

Bench out either at plate or in rundown, Milner holds at second, Landestoy continues at plate.

(Play recorded as a caught stealing [home] in steal stats for Johnny Bench).

This is a case where the SAFETY SQUEEZE would have produced a "1 AND 2" result, allowing the offense the option to take off the squeeeze or try it again with less favorable success probability.

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Two out. Clutch effects active with Milner on second. Weak hitting Landestoy is clutch favorable at 1:7

Jose Alverez was not carded, pitching only eight innings in 1982. His composite slash line matches both Bob Ojeda (RHB split) and Tom Seaver (overall split)

Of those two sub choices, I decide on Ojeda's RHB split for pitcher card reads.

Alvarez is the last of the five Braves' relievers selected by pregame pitcher regulation. And though he has an out recorded to his credit on the failed squeeze play, he still needs to pitch to at least one batter fully--per MLB rules. So any desire to try to get a better pitcher--such as Bedrosian--into the game must wait until Landestoy (pinch hitting for announced pinch hitter Redus) has completed his plate appearance.

Alvarez could intentionally walk Landestoy, then give way to a randomly selected remaining reliever, but the Reds have their best hitter--Concepcion--on deck and Landestoy--even clutch favorable--is still a poor hitter.

Pitcher regulations proved costly to the Braves. A 6:9 was rolled. Pitcher card. d20 was 17 (N-HR 1-16, double 17-20 on sub pitching card). Landestoy weak versus right, so the high roll was better but Milner scores from second in either case with what proved to be the winning run.

With Alverez completing his session to one batter, the Braves were free to select their sixth bullpenner from the reliever portion of the Pitcher Regulation Tables. Bedrosian, with the highest probability rate, was indeed selected and pitched 2.1 hitless innings, only allowing an intentional walk to Concepcion following the Landestoy RBI two-bagger. But it was too late.

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Clutch effected singles/outs

One

Mike Vail, a reverse righty batter who is clutch favorable at 2:7, got the clutch effect single in the bottom of the second while pinch hitting for starting pitcher Bob Shirley, who never came to the plate in this game.

Vail's clutch effect single scored Cesar Cedeno from second base with two out.

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Bad Base Stealer effects

Several MAS rolls were performed for various bad base stealers and one MAS (Must Attempt Steal) was triggered by d1000 roll.

In the bottom of the 6th inning--in the final frame of MAS rule eligibility--with the Reds trailing 5-3, Ron Oester leads off with a single and we then roll d1000 for possible MAS.

(We first rolled for pickoff. Oester was picked off three times in 228 SBO for a 026-316 adjusted pickoff roll--no pickoff resulted)

Oester was 5 for 11 stealing in 1982. His calculated MAS roll range is 128-082 (roughly 12.8 percent MAS chance per eligibility).

d1000 resulted in 047

MAS triggered

Oester's rate was 45.4 percent in 1982. Add that percentage to the pitcher/catcher hold percentage. Garber 0 Benedict -1. Subtract .05 from Oester's 1982 steal rate.

We get 404-545 (roughly 40.4 percent steal rate versus this Braves battery.

d1000 roll was in the 80 percent range resulting in a MAS Rule Caught Stealing play.

Oester OUT STEALING VIA MUST ATTEMPT STEAL RULE.

During the course of the season, Oester and other bad base stealers will be successful as well as not on steal attempts. In any case, MAS rules will insure reasonably accurate stolen base/caught stealing statistics for the many (200 entries on 1982 Bad Base Stealer list) players who zero out on their steal stats during mediocre game simulations.

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Stolen bases

Terry Harper stole second base off Brad Lesley/Dave Van Gorder (+4 hold & +2 arm)---max. +/-5 hold limit. Harper had 90 percent success probability when he stole base

Paul Householder stole second base on Joe Cowley/Bruce Benedict (+5 & -1). Success probability was 85 percent

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Caught stealing

Wayne Krenchicki by Boggs/Benedict (+9 & -1) +5 combined hold effect max. Success probability 90 percent. Roll 19 on d20. Out.

Ron Oester (MAS rule caught stealing play--see details in earlier comment).

Johnny Bench caught stealing home on suicide squeeze missed bunt (see earlier comment).

Dale Murphy caught stealing by Kern/Van Gorder (0 & +2). Success probability 80 percent. d20 roll 19. Out.

Harper, Krenchicki, Householder, and Murphy were all held on base.

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Sacrifice Hits

Tommy Boggs with none out in second and Benedict on first, successfully sacrifice bunted runner to second. Boggs is a C-level bunter downgraded to a D by defense CORNERS IN. Two d6 roll was 7. SAC read.

Donnie Moore with one out in fourth and Benedict on first, successfully sacrifice bunted runner to second. Moore is subcarded as C-level bunter downgraded to a D by defense CORNER IN. Once again, two d6 roll was 7. SAC.

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Sacrifice flies

Cesar Cedeno got 3:7 Roll---fly(cf) B?---with 17 runner Concepcion on third. +2 added to third base runner's speed on B? flies. Subtract 3 for Dale Murphy's arm in center. 16 chances. Roll 13. Safe at home.

Driessen was on first. Murphy's e9 tested for wild throw. No error. (Home brewed rule that reduces dropped ball errors by outfielders while adding throwing errors).

If error was result, do not score it an error unless pitcher failed to back up throw effectively (incorperates pitcher range and adds pitcher error possibility).

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Outfield assist

Chris Chambliss, pinch hitting for Bob Watson in 3rd inning, gets 3:11 roll resulting in fly(rf) B? with 15 runner Terry Harper on third. Rightfielder Paul Householder uses -2 arm to counter +2 added to Harper's speed on B? fly rule and guns down Harper on d20 roll of 20. Double play.

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Errors

Pitcher Tommy Boggs avoided a fielding error and committed a throwing error. Both cases involved home brewed rules that revamp pitcher errors.

Eddie Milner hit GB(p) X

Boggs is a 4 e51 (max pitcher error)

d20 was 12 (G3 result)

Three d6 was 15 (two base error result)

Error erased by home brew rule that only validates the error upon 1-5 range result on d20. Subsequent roll fell outside home brewed 1-5 error range. G3 result.

S-O-M pitcher errors are simplified into one area, the GB(p) X play.

I realistically disperse pitcher errors into four areas

1) GB(p) X, where I only keep the error valid upon rolling within 1-5 range on d20.

2) Test pitcher error rating upon DEFENSE read for all bunt plays where pitcher is the identified fielder. All bunt fielders are tested for error possibility on DEFENSE reads as well as having--per S-O-M rules--their range number added to runner speed.

3) Whenever a runner is held on base, roll d20. If "1" occurs, test pitcher error rating for possible wild pickoff throw.

4) Pitcher chance of error backing up base and mishandling throw or making wild throw after handling outfielder or relay throw. (I won't bother specifying that one right now).

So Boggs avoided his fielding error but was charged with a throwing error in the third inning. After holding Concepcion at first, d20 result was "1" (see #3 above) and three d6 error roll was "7", resulting in error. Wild pickoff throw advanced Concepcion to second. Because of the error, Concepcion was eventually on third base instead of second and was able to score on Cedeno's sacrifice fly. (Unearned run)

So Boggs ends up with one error for the game, the same he would have received under conventional S-O-M rules, but in different form.

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Glenn Hubbard committed an error in the fourth inning.

Rafael Ramirez booted one during the Reds' three run sixth. Key error. Led to another unearned run.

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Sub cards used in this second game of three game series

Three

(1) Donnie Moore

Noncarded reliever pitched second straight game. Won previous game in relief using 1971 Doyle Alexander card (CFC) in game played months ago documented in the special strat-o-casted version at the Lau/Hriniak Replay Centre.

I upgraded Moore's sub card to include his simulated left/right OPS split values.

This greatly changed 1982 Donnie Moore's pitching dynamic. Instead of the composite/d100 percentage method using 1971 Alexander, he now faces hitters with sub pitching cards that simulate his widely varied splits.

1982 Donnie Moore's splits:

Vs. LHB .190/.286/.238
Vs. RHB .358/.386/.478

OPS vs. LHB .524
OPS vs. RHB .864

BN (Balance Number) 340 R (340 point REVERSE OPS split differential)

Reverse meaning he was more effective against the hitters batting opposite his pitching hand.

So 1982 Donnie Moore is one of those righty relievers who sort of functions as a lefty reliever who is effective in a situational/platoon role.

Even more so when one considers how he maintains leverage against switch hitters such as Oester, Householder, etc. from the Reds team he just faced.

1982 Donnie Moore sub cards used for his left/right splits:

vs. LHB: 1982 Tim Stoddard--------.192/.289/.231 (.520 OPS)
vs. RHB: 1982 Dan Schatzeder----.351/.367/.489 (.856 OPS)

Schatzeder was categorized by S-O-M as a "mixed" player, one whose stats accrued from the two NL teams he pitched for in 1982 were combined into the one pitching card he was issued. It was this composite card that featured LHB OPS values that were very close to 1982 Donnie Moore RHB OPS values.

This was a very satisfying sub card upgrade in that it creates more accuracy for Moore's 1982 stat values and changes his pitching dynamic, making him more situational and much more valuable as a short term relief specialist.

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(2) Larry McWilliams

Mixed player McWilliams' 1982 pitching performance between his two teams--Atlanta and Pittsburgh--was very disparite.

We corrected.

Coincidentally, Tim Stoddard's card--used for Donnie Moore vs. LHB was one of the two used for Larry McWilliams. This time, however, his composite values were used for McWilliams' vs. left values. (CFL/d100 percentage roll method).

Mark "Boom Boom" Bomback's 1982 vs. RHB values were used for McWilliams' vs. RHB values (RFR).

So 1982 Braves' lefty Larry McWilliams can be reasonably effective against lefty hitters but manager will want to avoid pitching him against RHB in many game situations.

1982 Braves' Larry McWilliams vs. LHB .250/.333/.364
1982 --------Tim Stoddard-----overall-------- .249/.337/.343 (CFL)

1982 Braves' Larry McWilliams vs. RHB .360/.438/.535
1982 ------- Mark Bomback-----vs. RHB---- .367/.419/.533 (RFR)

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(3) Jose Alvarez

Righty reliever Alvarez pitched 7.2 innings appearing in 7 games for the 1982 Braves. His sub card options were mentioned earlier.

Unlike the previously mentioned sub carded pitchers, my decision was not to attempt to sub for Alvarez' left/right splits, just go with a composite value simulation due to his very small sample size and the difficulty in finding close matches.

Uses 1982 Bob Ojeda vs. RHB side of pitching card (6:9 roll produced eventual game winning hit in replay chronicled above).

1982 Jose Alvarez overall splits--- .308/.357/.500
1982 Bobby Ojeda vs. RHB splits--.302/.363/.504 (RFC)

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More later...last updated 5/30/18























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