1966 Charlie Lau | Showing Comments:

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4/22/18 7:37 AM Quote
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Strict platoon. Only hits versus righties.

18 games. 17 plate appearances. May 11 was announced pinch hitter but was pinch hit for by Sam Bowens when lefty came in.

Strictly a pinch hitter. May not start. May not field. May not have more than one plate appearance per game.

1966 Orioles won World Series. Tilt fudge factors their way.

1966 Orioles played 160 games, Lau appeared in 18, which is 11.25 percent.

'66 Lau is a fringe, outlier, PDR (Preliminary Dice Roll) player.

So we roll d1000 for his game eligibility, using his game appearances percentage of 11.25, meaning a d1000 roll of 000-001 to 112-500 puts him on the flex/sliding roster for the game in question.

An assumption can be made that, when eligible for games per d1000 probability dice roll, Lau will not be used in this or that game. This would reduce his participation from what is was in real life--according to probability holding true.

This is where the gamer makes an assessment as to the fringe player's likelihood of playing. In the case of 1966 Lau, since he doesn't hit lefties, his 11.25 percent of game appearances should probably be adjusted upwards about 30 percent, elevating him to around 15 percent probability for flex roster eligibility.


PDR formulations for 1966 Charlie Lau

PDR to be used for batting average because no carded player matches .500 batting average

1966 American League batting average was .240 (240-468)

(13005/54082 hits/at bats)


PDR to be used for walks.

1966 American League walk per plate appearance .081 (081-544)

(4927/60421 walks/PA)


1966 Lau had 4 walks in 17 PA, a .235 walk rate (235-294)


Lau hit zero homeruns, so no PDR for that is necessary

Lau had two doubles and one triple to go with his three singles. We don't bother with pitcher adjustment numbers for doubles and triples. Hit outcomes for 1966 Lau will be settled by d6 rolls because he had six hits.


Let's say the 1966 Orioles are taking on the 1966 White Sox

Say Lau's d1000 flex roster game eligibility roll falls within said range

He is called on to pinch hit against right handed flutterball master Hoyt Wilhelm

Here is where we use the pitcher's walk adjustment number and his batting average adjustment number. Once again, we work off league averages.

1966 Wilhelm surrendered 50 hits in 281 at bats against, a .178 (177-936) opponent batting average.

Divide that by the league batting average of .240 (240-468), and we get .739957, which is the hitter batting average adjustment number for 1966 Wilhelm

So we multiply that by Lau's 1966 BA of .500 and see that Lau reduces to a .370 hitter (369-979) when facing 1966 Wilhelm.


Then we take Wilhelm's walks rate of 17 in 308 PA against, a rate of .055 (055-195) and divide by league rate of .082 (081-544)

We get .676874 for Wilhelm's walk adjustment number to be multiplied by Lau's walk rate of .235294

Lau's 1966 walk rate when facing 1966 Hoyt Wilhelm gets reduced to .159-264


Batter/pitcher adjustments have been made for this hypothetical plate appearance.

I'll use my 1964 Charlie Lau S-O-M card as sub card for his outs, if roll is on hitter card when no hit or walk results.

1966 pinch hitter Charlie Lau is ready to hit against 1966 reliever Hoyt Wilhelm.

(1) Roll d1000 for walk possibility using Lau's adjusted walk PDR (159-264), approx. 15.9 percent chance of drawing walk against 1966 Wilhelm.

(2) If walk does not result, proceed to adjusted batting average PDR (369-979) approx. 37 percent chance of getting a hit.

If d1000 is within that adjusted batting average range, Lau has base hit versus Wilhelm. If no walk or hit results, roll three d6 and read off pitcher/hitter sub card until out results in order to record a random out. On "X" rolls, ignore hit result and go with the nearest out reading.

1966 Charlie Lau hit table (d6 roll)

6)-Single (cf)

This regulation of fringe outliers such as 1966 Charlie Lau is simple to use and conceived in such a way as to promote accuracy while allowing these important players to participate.


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