POW Rule 27: Obsolete | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 2168
4/19/18 10:08 AM Quote
Since the introduction of Yank Numbers with Innings Max, the old Strat-O Matic pitcher endurance/fatigue/point of weakness rules and instructions located on pages 11-12 in the S-O-M rule book can be chucked.

On Glenn Guzzo's April 2018 Talk Show at strat-o-matic.com, someone wrote to Glenn about his confusion with rule 27.4, specifically with a reliever who has a POW of (1)•.

The person was confused about how many qualifiers (hits plus walks--I add HBP) the (1)• reliever needed to give up when his relief stint crossed over into a different inning.

Guzzo explained the rule and I agree with Glenn that rule 27.4 makes it perfectly clear ("A reliever with a POW of (1)• is immediately vulnerable to fatigue").

The person should have read the rule carefully, which would have taken much less time than he took to send his email question to Glenn.

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I read another analysis of 2018 pitcher/bullpen use which mentioned by example the use of a reliever such as lefty Jerry Blevins of the Mets. Blevins--as of games played through April 16--has appeared in 10 games and faced just 12 batters, pitching 2.2 innings.

With eight man bullpens becoming the new norm, this kind of specialization--where a lefty like Blevins most often comes in to face one lefty slugger--then immediately departs for another reliever--is becoming common.

How does this impact the POW rule used by S-O-M? In short, rule 27.4 to 27.65 and possibly rule 28--the closer rule--allows for overuse of relief pitchers.

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Let's use Blevins' stats through April 16 as an example to compare his S-O-M POW regulation with how he is regulated using Yank Numbers with Innings Max.

Blevins would be one of many 2018 relievers designated (1)• for his POW (There were zero (1)• pitchers in 1982).

Those (1)• relievers would need to surrender three qualifiers within the same inning to be automatically yanked from the game per S-O-M's POW rules.

So under S-O-M rules, it would take at least three batters faced before (1)• pitchers reach their fatigue/effectiveness downgrade, not a realistic regulation for the growing number of pitchers like Blevins, who's averaging barely more than one batter faced per appearance.

On top of that, S-O-M Rule 27.63 states: "The maximum number of innings a reliever can pitch without fatigue is his POW inning, plus 2".

S-O-M responded to their own 27.63 rule by adding--in 2010--rule 27.65, which states:

"If a reliever pitches 2 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest one day before his next appearance. If he pitches 3 or more innings above his relief fatigue rating then he must rest two days before his next appearance. If a relief pitcher is used without the proper amount of rest, consider him fatigued for the entire outing".----from page 12 of S-O-M Rule book.

So, per current S-O-M pitcher regulation, those (1)• relievers are allowed to pitch two and two-thirds innings (commonly abbreviated as 2.2) without any performance penalty, as long as they avoid said qualifiers. That 2.2 innings pitched in one outing matches the 2.2 innings pitched in Jerry Blevins' first ten outings in 2018. So you can see the huge opportunity for distortion.

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Many gamers home brew a rule that states that relief pitchers may not pitch double their fatigue number, which would limit (1)• pitchers to 1.2 Innings per outing, max. I used that prior to the introduction of Yank Numbers with Innings Max.

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Now let's study Blevins' regulation when using Yank Numbers with Innings Max.

Formula for Yank Numbers:

Innings pitched divided by appearances. Then multiply that number by the pitcher's WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). Separate for pitching roles (as starter/as reliever).

For Blevins' first ten games, we take his 2.2 innings (2.666), and divide by his 10 games pitched--all in relief.

We get .2666666

Multiply that by his WHIP, which was 1.875 after those first ten games.

We get 0.500

Exactly one-half. As in, it will take either one or two qualifiers for automatic removal of 2018 Blevins.

Fraction settled by d1000

If dice roll is within 1 to 500 range, Blevins gets two qualifiers, as we round UP to the nearest whole number, which must be EXCEEDED in order to remove pitcher. If roll is outside range (501 to 000), one qualifier knocks him out.

So half of the time Blevins will have to leave after one qualifier under Yank Numbers rule. The other half of the time it will take two qualifiers.

So, for 2018 Jerry Blevins--after his first 10 appearances--his Yank Number of 0.500 translates to an average of 1.5 qualifiers for automatic removal as opposed to exactly twice that amount--three qualifiers--to only produce the fatigue factored effectiveness downgrade under S-O-M's outdated and unsatisfying pitcher regulation.

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And we're just talking about the pitcher being subjected marginally to performance penalty under S-O-M pitcher regulation. Many times, the manager will see fit to accept the "dots being hot" performance penalty in order to keep an outlier in the game or save the other pitchers by letting a scrub mop up. Or whatever. In any case, the S-O-M pitcher regulation does not function at all like a pitch count, as the Yank Numbers with Innings Max clearly does.

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The S-O-M performance fatigue/downgrade-in-effectiveness method opens the door for statistical distortion. Many innings pitched in simulated games will be in downgraded form. Not a high percentage, of course, but still plenty of differentiated performance innings to throw off replay accuracy, if one desires that.

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Now let's go to the Innings Max.

2018 Blevins, through those first ten games, got two outs in a game one time so far. That's the most, setting his Innings Max at 0.2 thus far.

That 0.2 Innings Max is a far cry from the 2.2 maximum-without-penalty under S-O-M regulation or even the 1.2 under the common home brew regulation mentioned earlier.

We can see the realism with Yank Numbers with Innings Max. We can see how it functions as a pitch count--a sliding pitch count that accommodates individual seasons or different eras or different managing.

Yank Numbers with Innings Max creates far greater accuracy and realism. And it's much easier to apply than the lengthy, protracted, and outdated pitcher regulations by Strat-O-Matic.

Pitcher regulation tables (pre-game pitcher setup) and Yank Numbers with Innings Max (in-game pitcher regulation) have worked marvelously as the replacement for S-O-M's old pitcher regulations.

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Related threads:

1982 Pitcher Regulation Tables (includes instructions)
1982 Yank Numbers (with Innings Max, includes instructions)

These threads can be printed and used for any baseball sim game for 1982.



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