1982 Tim Conroy & Rule 29.2 | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 1985
3/17/18 12:27 PM Quote
The 1982 Oakland Athletics were carded 34 players, the Strat-O-Matic record for most cards for one team upon reissue. (1968 Angels just took second place with 33).

1982 A's lefthander Tim Conroy was left uncarded, however, despite making five starts (all as a September call-up).

His versus left splits are outlier and of too small sample size, so I use the composite value/percentage roll method and currently process from the card of 1992 Jim Bullinger. That card subs for '82 Conroy, at least for now.

Conroy made his first MLB appearance since his debut season in 1978. It was against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 8, 1982, a Wednesday matinee getaway game before an announced crowd of 10,786 at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.

The Blue Jays were fooled by Conroy's move to first base. Tony Johnson lead off the game with a walk and was promptly picked off by Conroy. With one out in the top of the second inning Alfredo Griffin walked, then was picked off by Conroy ("Griffin picked off first base; safe on E1; Griffin to 2B"--was the play-by-play description in Baseball-Reference database).

In the "show pitching lines and other info" category involving the boxscore, those two pickoff plays are listed this way:

Pickoffs: Tim Conroy 2 (1; Tony Johnson, 1st base, Alfredo Griffin; 1st base)

Note that a "1" is listed in front of the pickoff/out regarding Tony Johnson, but there is no "2" listed in front of the pickoff/safe on E1 regarding Alfredo Griffin.

1982 Tim Conroy is credited in his situational baserunning stats with one pickoff (the Tony Johnson pickoff where the out was recorded).

I could not retrieve the details of the Griffin pickoff attempt, so I'll guess that Conroy's pickoff throw to first was judged by official scorer or statistician to have been in time to get runner out diving back to first if the throw by Conroy was not wild. Or Griffin took off for second base as Conroy made his pickoff move and was judged by the statistician to have been either caught in a rundown or tagged out at second after a throw there by the first baseman if Conroy made an accurate throw to first base.

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Editing note 4-3-18:

I noticed in Baseball-Reference boxscore and summary of the 3-30-18 game between Philadelphia and Atlanta the following item listed in "pitching lines and info":

Pickoffs: Jose Ramirez (0; Nick Williams, 1st base)

Play-by-play: Williams Picked off 1B (E1); Williams to 2B

So I'm now guessing that the "Pickoffs" info only concerns pickoff throws where a runner gets picked off resulting in his being called out or a pickoff throw resulting in an error (wild throw) by the pitcher with no assumption about whether that pickoff attempt would have got the runner out.

I think that it functions only as a detail on how a pitcher committed an error.

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This is part of what leads into my amendment for S-O-M Rule 29.2 for pickoffs (that rule also includes balks). The inclusion in Baseball-Reference of the pickoff play that resulted in an error can be incorperated into our replay boxscores and/or summaries for game simulation.

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S-O-M Rule 29.2 is titled "When Runners Attempt To Steal"

I amend: When Runners Are Held On Base (and amend the rest using Pickoff numbers)

(1) Roll d20. Roll three d10's (d1000) along with d20 if the runner has a pickoff rating.

Exclude players listed on pickoff sheet with 000-000 pickoff number. Those players were listed because they had zero PO (picked off attempting to get back to their base of origin) but at least one PCS (picked off caught stealing, which does not get applied to their picked off values because the PCS already counts against their caught stealing values and is applied to their steal ratings by S-O-M). We account for these in replay summaries. After a player gets caught stealing, his PCS gets divided by his CS and that percentage is processed into a dice roll range to determine whether runner was caught stealing by a catcher's throw or picked off by the pitcher while in the act of attempting a stolen base.

(2) If d20 roll is 1, test pitcher error rating to see if there is a wild throw to first base on pickoff attempt and--if error results--whether runner advances one or two bases on pitcher error--from pitcher error sections on SADV Fielding Chart--(Runner is safe regardless of if the d1000 pickoff roll was within his out range or not when a pitcher error has resulted from that d20 1 roll).

(3) Check d1000 to see if pickoff roll is within runner's pickoff range, if applicable. If result of d1000 is within runner's pickoff range (listed, for example, on 1982 pickoff sheet--see "Tips" thread--bottom category of this forum), go ahead with procedure to determine if pickoff occurs (use runner safe range of 1-10 +/- pitcher hold for dive back safe range).

(4) If the result is BOTH a pitcher error and a pickoff, runner advances on the error and we record this play in our game summary in similar fashion to what was recorded in the Baseball-Reference account mentioned earlier.

(5) S-O-M Rule 29.2 includes balk possibility on a d20 roll of 2, so I will use that along with d1000 pickoff roll. Per that S-O-M rule, test pitcher balk range listed on pitcher SADV card. If both a balk and pickoff chance result, proceed with pickoff chance. If runner is not picked off, balk has occured if d20 roll was within pitcher balk range.

(6) If no pickoff or balk has occurred, verify runner for MAS status (see thread "1982 Bad Base Stealer List" and rules) and verify situation for MAS qualification. Follow rules for that. If there is no MAS in effect, offensive manager may roll for runner's good lead, remembering that this amended rule 29.2 is in effect only when he is held, so subtract 2 (or 4 If runner wants to steal third) from combined pitcher/catcher hold (capped at +/- 5). On attempted pickoff rolls, pitcher hold is not combined with catcher arm and is not capped, hence the +6 through +9 and -6 adjustment possibilities.

(7) When a runner is not held but has a pickoff range, roll for pickoff possibility and only roll d20 for pitcher error possibility when d1000 result falls within range of pickoff possibility. If no pickoff and/or error occurs, proceed with MAS, if applicable. If no MAS presents, proceed with a regular steal attempt if desired. Then roll d20 along with three d6 per Rule 29.1: "When Pitching To Batters", which include wild pitch, balk, and passed ball possibilities within the 1-2 rolls from the d20

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Creating the error chances on pickoff throws, DEFENSE readings on bunts, and backup plays on throws from the outfield is compensated by reducing pitcher error chances on the GB(p)X play by 75 percent. (When error occurs on GB(p)X from the three d6, roll d20 a second time and 1-5 retains error, 6-20 refer only to the range read result from original d20 roll).

This distributes pitcher errors in a more satisfying and realistic way.
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