Pickoffs: The Forgotten Stat | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 2193
6/1/17 11:44 AM Quote
The pickoff factor is omitted in 99 percent of gamer replays.

I'm incorporating pickoff values into my dice roller game engine for my 1982 SADV Strat-O-Matic baseball season (See "Pickoffs" thread for my formula).

In 1982, 222 different players were picked off a total of 452 times. There were 2,107 MLB games played in 1982. So there was one player picked off for every 4.66 games.

My formula replaces S-O-M SADV optional rule 29.2 section B (Page 13), which is generically applied (inaccurate) to baserunners, uses the simple d6, and does not take into account the pitcher hold factor.

Under my formula, the pickoff chance will be applied every 2.33 games (for 1982) on average and when that chance occurs, the runner in question will be safe fifty percent of the time, on average.

My pickoff play uses the d4 (pitcher error possibility--See "Revamping Pitcher Errors"), the d20 (for pickoff range roll which is adjusted by pitcher hold factor), and the d1000 (for six digit POR [Pick-Off Roll] value designated for each individual picked off runner).

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S-O-M SADV base stealing ratings are not affected at all by pickoffs, as S-O-M handles pickoffs with their optional pickoff rule I mentioned earlier.

S-O-M does, however, factor in the pickoff when considering pitcher hold values. Here is an example of that:

1982 Jerry Garvin (Toronto Blue Jays):

SBOA (Stolen Base Opportunities Against): 124

Stolen bases against: 2

Caught stealing against: 1

Pickoffs: 0

Pitcher Hold: 0

1982 Toronto catchers:

Ernie Whitt (-1 Arm. Caught 50 percent)

Buck Martinez (-3 Arm. Caught 45 percent)

Geno Petralli (+2 Arm. Caught 5 percent)

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1982 Bob Stoddard (Seattle Mariners):

SBOA (Stolen Base Opportunities Against): 72

Stolen bases against: 3

Caught stealing against: 1

Pickoffs: 4

Pitcher Hold: -5

1982 Seattle catchers:

Rick Sweet: (-1 Arm. Caught 40 percent)

Bud Bulling:(0 Arm. Caught 30 percent)

Jim Essian: (+2 Arm. Caught 30 percent)

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Garvin's hold value of "0" improves in combination with his catchers' arm values. Stoddard's hold value of "-5" basically stays put. But the gap in their raw hold values is not significantly closed upon adjustment. The four-to-zero pickoff favorability for Stoddard-over-Garvin was obviously considered by S-O-M when factoring their hold values and made a huge difference.

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