Pitcher, Catcher, & Outfielder Errors | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 2269
2/17/19 8:42 AM Quote
The system for processing errors in S-O-M baseball game simulation is less than satisfying. My 1982 SADV season simulation will use "Error Numbers" to replace the fielding error system that was installed by S-O-M for its SADV game in the winter/spring of 1989.

That S-O-M fielding chart uses the d20 and d6 to process range outcomes and error possibilities respectively. d20 will continue for range readings. No changes there, of course. But d1000 will be used instead of d6 for error outcomes and the S-O-M "error section" will be chucked for any season that has error numbers processed, as 1982 will very soon (see 1982 Hitter Balance Numbers thread at bottom category of this database).

My new system is more transparent and more attractive than the old S-O-M error system and has an accuracy and consistency (regarding 1B, 2B, SS, & 3B in particular) that S-O-M may have intended their error section to have but failed to achieve.

The error numbers will also allow ROE (reached on error) to be individualized and incorporated into the game as one of several options to use for Ultra-Advanced gaming.

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The following contains revamped rules for Pitcher, Catcher, and Outfielder error outcomes. Error outcomes for infielders are simulated in more basic fashion.

For all fielders, two "error numbers" exist. The first one is the UNADJUSTED error number. This number represents a fielder's actual error percentage for a given team within a given season. It's calculated by dividing the errors made at a given position by the total fielding chances at that given position for season in question or individual teams in questions if player divided his time between more than one team.

The second error number is the ADJUSTED error number. The ADJUSTED error number is the probability percentage result upon X-chart outcomes read from pitcher card fielder "X" results. This percentage calculates the UNADJUSTED error number in such a way as to coordinate the percentage of error with the perceived-to-be-intended error probability for outcomes from the "error section" of the SADV fielding chart.

We use the following multiplication numbers for each fielding position to coordinate error probabilities for "fielder X" dice roll outcomes. The UNADJUSTED error number gets multiplied by specific number for specific fielding position.

1B: 27
2B: 7
SS: 5
3B: 7
OF: 7
P: 4.5
C: X-Chart percentages

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But pitchers, catchers and outfielders get a high rate of their total errors from throwing rather than fielding. S-O-M uses the T-rating for catchers, but not for outfielders or pitchers. So if we leave things as is, hitters reach base--as we all know--far too frequently for realism on GB(p)X and flyball-X outcomes involving outfielders.

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OUTFIELDER ERRORS (fielder "X" outcomes)

(1) Flyballs resulting in batter reaching base on outfielder error:

Roll d1000. Error results when dice roll is within range of outfielder's
UNADJUSTED error number.

"E3" on d1000 roll within starting 3 percent of error chance.
"E1" on d1000 roll within next 30 percent of error chance
"E2" on d1000 roll within last 67 percent of error chance.

Use calculator.

ROE (Reached On Error) FACTOR

This first part of the outfielder error possibility involves errors that enabled the hitter to reach base. So ROE factor can be incorporated here as well. Multiply the hitter's individual ROE adjustment number by the outfielder's UNADJUSTED error number to adjust his error range for that particular hitter (see SADV X-Chart thread for example).

(2) Outfielder misplays when fielding base hits:

When hit is not followed by either one or two asterisks that dictate runner advancement--e.g., SINGLE(rf)--roll d1000 to test error range from the outfielder's UNADJUSTED error number. If d1000 outcome falls within that range, E1 has occurred, allowing batter to advance one base from his hit outcome.

(3) Outfielder throwing errors:

When attempting to throw out lead a lead runner when that runner is safe following d20 result within 1-5 range for CORNER OUTFIELDERS and a 1-3 range for CENTERFIELDERS, use that outfielder's ADJUSTED error number for d1000 error probability.

Outfielder multiplication number for coordinating error percentages to X-Chart error section is 7.

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PITCHER ERRORS

(1) GB(p)X outcome calls for using the pitcher's UNADJUSTED error number for determining the error probability. The hitter can reach base on this part of the pitcher error chance, so incorporate ROE factor if desired.

Multiplication number for pitchers for coordinating error percentages to the X-chart pitcher error section is determined to be 4.5 (UNADJUSTED error percentage multiplied by 4.5).

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(2) When defense manager declares runner on base is being held, immediately roll d20. If "1" results, test pitcher's ADJUSTED error number range for error possibility to determine if a wild pickoff throw resulted.

If that runner also had a pickoff number, d1000 should be rolled simultaneously with d20. If d1000 was within range of runner's pickoff number, test for pickoff possibility. If runner is picked off AND if d20 resulted in "1" and pitcher error occurs, runner safely advances to the degree of pitcher error and this play is recorded in the game boxscore as a "pickoff/runner advancement on E1". If neither applies or neither occurs and the runner has a MAS number and MAS rules dictate steal attempt, remember that this must be applied immediately after pickoff numbers are applied for pickoff attempts with no pickoff result.

See Tips thread in bottom category of this database for 1982 pickoff numbers. Formula for pickoffs are there.

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(3) On sacrifice bunts and squeeze bunts from SADV Miscellaneous Chart:

On SPEED or DEFENSE results, per S-O-M rules, test running range of bunter to determine safe or out at first (other runner(s) advance). Adding my rule, test fielder for error. If bunt play resulted in batter out, test for error and incorporate ROE factor if also desired.

(a) For SACRIFICE bunts, test ADJUSTED error number.

Per S-O-M SAVD Miscellaneous Chart rules: use d6 to determine fielder of SACRIFICE bunt:

pitcher-------1 or 2
catcher-------3
1st baseman---4 or 5
3rd baseman---6

(b) For SQUEEZE bunts: Do the same except fielders of SQUEEZE bunts are as follows per S-O-M rules:

pitcher---------1, 2, or 3
1st baseman-----4 or 5
3rd baseman-----6

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(4) S-O-M rules provide possibility of one and two base errors for pitchers (E1 or E2 on pitcher error section of SADV Miscellaneous Chart). I choose to include the possibility of a three base error on the pitcher as well. As an example of how realistic the three base error possibility is for pitchers, I'll document a sequence of events culled from BBR play-by-play:

June 2, 1982----Detroit @ California

Bottom 4th, Angels batting, Tied 1-1 Kevin Saucier facing 5-6-7, etc.

Don Baylor----rated 16 runner----SINGLE to LF

Fred Lynn-----rated B bunter-----reached on E1/Sacrifice (Bunt); Baylor out at home/RF-C (rightfielder was Chet Lemon, rated 3(-1) e6)---Lynn safe at third base on two base error on pitcher.

Baylor obviously thought he could score but was thrown out at the plate by Lemon. Left-handed pitcher Kevin Saucier, rated max awful fielder by S-O-M for 1982 (5 e51) fielded the bunt but evidently threw wildly, the ball likely going down the rightfield foul territory area.

Not quite a E3, but close. Here's what needs to happen in my S-O-M game simulation for the pitcher's three base error to occur:

On SACRIFICE bunt plays resulting in SPEED or DEFENSE outcomes, a d6 1 or 2 results in pitcher fielding bunt. From there, his error possibility is tested. Again, ROE adjustment factor may be applied if desired.

If error occurs and d1000 result was in bottom 20 percent of the pitcher's error probability range, an E2 occurs. If d1000 result is near the very bottom of the error range (000-001 to 010-000), then runner may test the rightfielders throwing arm against his speed (no other adjustments) to advance that additional base and turn the E2 into a rare E3.

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CATCHER ERRORS

Catcher X-Chart error probabilities converted to d1000 format:

e0-------000-000
e1-------027-777
e2-------055-555
e3-------069-444
e4-------083-333
e5-------111-111
e6-------083-333
e7-------125-000
e8-------125-000
e9-------111-111
e10------111-111
e11------138-888
e12------208-333
e13------236-111
e14------194-444
e15------194-444
e16------236-111
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These percentages from the error section of the S-O-M fielding chart for catchers are used to determine errors by catchers that occur apart from errors from their T-ratings. On X-Chart chances where batter might reach base on catcher error, the hitter's ROE adjustment number can be applied.

Like pitcher errors, S-O-M features the possibility of one base error and two base error for catchers. As I do with pitchers, I include the possibility of a three base error for catchers. I apply it the same way I mentioned in the pitcher part of this thread.

The catcher has a lower probability than the pitcher of committing the three base error because the S-O-M SACRIFICE bunt chart calls for one chance in six for catcher to field that bunt as opposed to two chances in six for pitchers. That's as it should be, the catcher having the advantage of the play to first in front of him. Catcher and pitcher are the only players in the infield who qualify for the three base error possibility because of the angle they throw the ball to first base from on certain bunt plays.



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