Baserunning | Showing Comments:
statgoon81

Posts: 2196
3/18/18 1:41 PM Quote
I've enjoyed poring over the RSP (Runs Scored Percentage) numbers within the Baseball-Reference database.

Like most stats, RSP needs to be bolstered by other stats in order to provide context and tell the full story. Batting first in the order gives a player the best chance of attaining maximum RSP. Batting second is next best. The 3-9 positions in the batting order clearly lag behind the 1-2 positions for attaining optimum RSP.

XBT% (extra bases taken percentage) is a crucial baserunning stat.

OOB (outs on bases) is another stat I look at. BT (bases taken) is very important in determining how good a man is on the bases. I look at the player's RSP in relation to his team's overall RSP. I note how many runs the player scored (sample size). Triples, inside-the-park homeruns, stolen bases, stolen base percentage, pickoff stats, etc. factor into speed appraisals or baserunning assessments. Statcast is the top resource used today, but much of their data is privately held and controlled for profit by MLB.

Strat-O-Matic can properly gauge baserunner value through these stats at Baseball-Reference. They can avoid misjudging baserunners like 1964 Dick Allen (11 runner who should have been a 17 runner), 1981 Paul Molitor (14 runner who should have been a 17 runner), or 1991 Ivan Calderon (17 runner who should have been a 14 runner).

I put together an informal list of noteworthy statistical baserunning seasons since 1925, which is as far back as RSP records go in the Baseball-Reference database.

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The league average Runs Scored Percentage (RSP) since 1925 is roughly 30 percent for individual players or individual teams. For players who hit in the 1-2 positions in the batting order, it's about 37 percent.

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Pickoff explanation: I use PO (picked off) minus PCS (picked off while attempting to steal) as the number designated for recording "times picked off" for players listed below. Information obtained from BBR database. Since PCS counts against the baserunner's regular caught stealing stats, I discount that and document only the times picked off trying to get back to base of origin, which is the stat not included in base stealing. Otherwise, it would could mislead toward the runner's detriment. Example: 1982 Tim Raines had ten PO and ten PCS, meaning his pickoffs can be ignored because ten minus ten is zero for the separated pickoff stat, the ten PCS already counted against 1982 Raines in his base stealing stats.

In my 1982 replays, I record both pickoff stats. The PCS is documented when a player with at least one real life PCS in 1982 is caught stealing. I divide the player's real life 1982 total PCS by his real life 1982 total caught stealing and use d1000 to process that probability outcome.

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1929 Woody English of the Cubs had an RSP of 55

55 is highest I've found thus far.

His team had an RSP of 39.

XBT% 55

GS: 144

batted 1st 70
batted 2nd 74

runs 131

Career RSP 40

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1980 Robin Yount of Brewers RSP 54

Team RSP 33

XBT% 58

BT 14

OOB 4

SB-CS 20-5

picked off once

GDP 8

GS 141

1st 24
2nd 108
3rd 1
7th 3
8th 5

Runs 121

Career RSP 35

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1930 Hughie Critz of Giants/Reds RSP 53

Team RSP 39

XBT% 57

GS 152

1st 132
2nd 12
7th 8

Runs 108

Career RSP 42

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Other players hit the 50 RSP mark during the late 20s and early 30s due to amount of runs scored per team during that period, so I will only list the ones beyond 51 RSP for that era.

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1965 Zoilo Versalles (MVP) of Twins RSP 51

Team RSP 33

XBT% 68

BT 21

OOB 5

SB-CS 27-5

picked off once

League leading 45 doubles and 12 triples

Lead league in triples third straight year

GS 158

1st 155
8th 3

Runs 126 (led league)

Career RSP 37

In many ways, 1965 Versalles and 1980 Yount were statistical doppelgangers.

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1994 Marquis Grissom of Montreal RSP 51

Team RSP 33

XBT% 46

SB-CS 36-6

Picked off once

BT 18

OOB 4

GS 109 (lockout year)

1st 70
2nd 1
3rd 38

Runs 96

Career RSP 37

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1980 Willie Wilson of Kansas City RSP 50

Willie Wilson hit 41 career homeruns. Of his first 16 homeruns hit between 1979-1984, 13 were inside-the-park jobs. His last 25 homeruns were all outside the park.

Team RSP 33

XBT% 62

SB-CS 79-10

10 for 10 Stealing third base

Picked off once (PO minus PCS)

BT 36 (career high)

OOB 9

17 ROE

League leading 15 triples

Two inside the park homeruns, one at Royals Stadium, other at Yankee Stadium. Batting left off Mike Stanton of Cleveland and batting right off Ron Guidry. Both to left field area.

Teammate George Brett hit .390 and drove in 118 runs in 117 games.

GS 157

1st 157

Runs 133 (led league)

Career RSP 41

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1993 Vince Coleman of Mets RSP 50

Team RSP 31

XBT% 52

SB-CS 38-13

Picked off twice

BT 17

OOB 4

GDP 2

PA 399

Triples 8

GS 88

1st 88

Runs 64

Career RSP 43

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1985 Rickey Henderson of Yankees RSP 49

Team RSP 34

XBT% 68 (career best)

SB-CS 80-10 (15-3 third base)

Picked off 4

BT 37*

OOB 11

GS 141

1st 141

Runs 146 (was most since Ted Williams in 1950 at the time)

Scored 1.035 runs/games started, best of his era among qualifiers

1985 teammate Don Mattingly drove in 145 and was voted MVP

Rickey wasn't a big triples hitter. 66 career. Seven was most
in a single season. He had five in 1985.

Career RSP 39

*37 BT (bases taken) was second most of his career. In 1988, Henderson had career best 44 BT but likely benefitted from the balk rule that was more strictly enforced for that one season. BT uses advancements on balks as one of the outcomes that add to BT totals.

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1962 Maury Wills of LA Dodgers RSP 49

Team RSP 35

XBT% 62

SB-CS 104-13 (16-1 third base)

Picked off 3

BT 24

OOB 9

Voted MVP

Age 29

Lead league in triples with 10

GS 164 (included play-in series versus Giants)

1st 164

Runs 130

Teammate Tommy Davis drove in 153 runs (was most between 1949-1997)

Career RSP 39

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1983 Rudy Law of White Sox RSP 49

Team RSP 34

XBT% 51

Age 26

SB-CS 77-12 (1-1 third base)

Picked off once

BT 15

OOB 8

GS 118

1st 118

Runs 95

Career RSP 41

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1989 Bip Roberts of Padres RSP 49

Team RSP 28

XBT% 63

SB-CS 21-11

(2 PCS)

BT 21

OOB 3

GS 79

1st 76
2nd 3

Runs 81 (1.025 runs/start, one of best ever)

387 PA

8 triples

Age 25

Career RSP 38

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1988 Devon White of Angels RSP 49

Team RSP 31

XBT% 65

SB-CS 17-8 (3-0 third)

(1 PCS)

BT 15

OOB 2

Age 25

2 triples

GS 110

1st 57
2nd 5
3rd 2
5th 4
6th 19
7th 23

Runs 76

Career RSP 39

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1993 Rickey Henderson of Toronto 49 RSP

Team RSP 33

XBT% 41

BT 8

OOB 0

SB-CS 22-2 (4-0, third)

Picked off zero times

PA 203 (traded from Oakland)

GDP 1

Age 32

37 runs

35 hits

35 walks

GS 44

1st 44

Career RSP 39

Small sample

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1979 Willie Wilson of Royals RSP 48

Team RSP 35

XBT% 72

BT 17

OOB 6

SB-CS 83-12 (4-0 third, 0-1 home) led AL in SB

Picked off net 1

GDP 1

Triples 13

Age 23

GS 136

1st 116
8th 2
9th 18

Runs 113

Hit five inside-the-park homeruns in 1979, most in one season
by any player of the modern era.

Career RSP 41

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1987 Len Dykstra of Mets RSP 48

Team RSP 32

XBT 69%

BT 22

OOB 7

SB-CS 27-7 (1-1 third)

Picked off once

GDP 1

Triples 3

GS 100

1st 99
2nd 1

Runs 86

Age 24

Career RSP 38

Dykstra had RSP of 41 when he scored 143 runs for 1993 Phillies

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1985 Vince Coleman of Cardinals RSP 48

Team RSP 33

XBT% 46

BT 22

OOB 12

SB-CS 110-25 (30-4 third, 2-1 home)

Picked off five times

GDP 3

Triples 10

GS 149

1st 149

Runs 107

OBP .320

Age 23

Career RSP 43

#3 hitter in the Cardinals' lineup was Tommy Herr, who drove in 110 runs with a modest .416 slugging average hitting behind track star Coleman and MVP Willie McGee.

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1993 Devon White of Toronto RSP 48

Team RSP 33

XBT% 59

BT 23

OOB 3

SB-CS 34-4 (4-0 third)

Picked off twice

GDP 3

Triples 6

GS 144

1st 103 (replaced at leadoff by Rickey Henderson)
2nd 41

Runs 116

Age 30

Career RSP 39

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1948 Tommy Henrich of Yankees RSP 48

Team RSP 36

XBT% 51

BT 4

OOB 6

SB-CS 2-3

Picked off once

GDP 14

Triples 14 (lead league for second straight year)

GS 145

2nd 127
3rd 18

Runs 138 (lead league)

Age 35

Career RSP 39

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1983 Steve Garvey of Padres RSP 47

Team RSP 31

XBT% 59 (best on his team)

BT 15

OOB 6

SB-CS 4-1 (home 0-1)

Picked off zero times

GDP 16

Triples 0

GS 100

3rd 77
4th 23

Runs 76 (prorated to 123 runs scored for 162 games)

Career RSP 31

Age 34

Manager: Dick Williams

Batter who hit behind Garvey most often in 1983 was Terry Kennedy, who scored 47 runs (8 runner, laughable RSP of 16), drove in 98 (clutch favorable--RBI adjuster) and hit .327/.388/.496 with men on base (.244/.296/.375 with nobody on--283 at bats with nobody on and 266 at bats with men on base). Kennedy's hitting with RISP: 205 PA 166 AB .313/.400/.470. Kennedy with 2 out RISP: 101 PA 79 AB .316/.465/468

Sixto Lezcano and Ruppert Jones also occasionally followed Garvey in the order and both hit somewhat better with men on. This is a possible explanation for Garvey's impressive RSP. But his club leading 59% XBT shows some evidence of his deft baserunning exploits.

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1987 Vince Coleman of Cardinals RSP 47

Team RSP 35

XBT% 57

BT 35

OOB 12

SB-CS 109-22 (third 24-5, home 0-4)

Picked off 10 times (12 PO minus 2 PCS)

Formulated roll-for-pickoff-attempt percentage: 081-633

S-O-M steal ratings: *3-7/-(20-16)

GDP 7

Triples 10

Age 25

GS 150

1st 150

Runs 121

Career RSP 43

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1979 Ozzie Smith of Padres RSP 47

Team RSP 28

XBT% 65

BT 7

OOB 8

SB-CS 28-7 (third 1-0, home 0-1)

Picked off zero times

GDP 11

Triples 6

OBP .260

Runs 77

Age 24

GS 153

1st 14
2nd 97
8th 42

Career RSP 35

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Brian Hunter of 1999 Mariners RSP 47 (also with Tigers)

Team RSP 32

XBT% 50

BT 23

OOB 7

SB-CS 44-5 (third 11-0)

Zero times picked off (1 PCS)

GDP 8

Triples 5

GS 114

1st 100
2nd 1
7th 1
9th 12

.231/.277/.300 hitting

71 runs (8 runs with Tigers, RSP 40 in 18 games)

Career RSP 41

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1995 Kenny Loften of Indians RSP 47

Team RSP 34

XBT% 56

BT 18

OOB 5

SB-CS 54-15 (13-4 of third, 1-0 of home)

Picked off once

GDP 6

Triples 13

GS 115

1st 115

Runs 93

Career RSP 42

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1999 Kenny Loften of Indians RSP 47

Team RSP 36

XBT% 51

BT 24

OOB 15

SB-CS 25-6 (4-1 Of third)

Twice picked off

GDP 6

Triples 6

GS 116

1st 116

Runs 110

Career RSP 42

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1989 Vince Coleman of Cardinals RSP 47

Team RSP 29

XBT% 47

BT 24

OOB 10

SB-CS 65-10 (17-2 Of third)

Picked off six times

GDP 4

Triples 9

GS 134

1st 134

Runs 94

Career RSP 43

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1988 Otis Nixon of Expos RSP 47

Team RSP 28

XBT% 46

BT 16

OOB 3

SB-CS 46-13 (13-2 of third)

Picked off once

GDP 0

Triples 2

.244/.312/.288 hitting

GS 63

1st 59
7th 3
8th 1

Runs 47 (small sample)

Scored 16 runs with RSP 50 (team 31) for 1984 Indians (small sample)

Career RSP 40

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1971 Vic Davalillo of Pirates RSP 47

Team RSP 33

XBT% 57

BT 9

OOB 1

SB-CS 10-2

Picked off zero times

At bats 295

Triples 6

GDP 4

GS 62

2nd 47
3rd 13
5th 1
6th 1

Age 34

Runs 48

Rated 16 runner by S-O-M

Career RSP 34

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Veteran lefty hitter Vic Davalillo and young righty hitter Gene Clines formed a nifty platoon out of the 2-hole for World Series winning Pittsburgh Pirates of 1971. Clines, who was rated a 17 runner by S-O-M and was second to Davalillo on that team with a RSP of 44, filled the 2-spot in the order against lefty starters. Clines scored 52 runs, so the two combined for 100 runs scored in their combined 123 games started.

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