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statgoon81

Posts: 2197
12/17/17 11:45 AM Quote
1982 picked off probability numbers using d1000 for all players who were picked off while either attempting to dive back to base they were occupying or were picked off while attempting a steal. Explanations at bottom of thread and within thread in Baseball 2/Basketball "1982 Tim Conroy & Rule 29.2", which fully explains how to apply picked off rule, including pitcher error possibility.

In descending order by league, divisions, and by rank in standings.

Key:

SBO---SB/CS----SB%----PO/PCS---picked off probability percentage/roll

AL EAST

Edwards----76--10/4--71.4--(2/1)--026-316
Cooper----290---2/3--40.0--(1/0)--006-897
Molitor---323--41/9--82.0--(3/3)--000-000
Money-----117---0/2---0.0--(1/1)--000-000
Moore-----181--2/10--16.7--(1/0)--011-050
Oglivie---219---3/5--37.5--(1/0)--009-132
Romero-----50---0/0--N/A---(1/0)--040-000
Thomas----208---3/7--30.0--(2/1)--009-615

-------------------------------------------------------------

Bumbry-----241---10/5--66.7--1/0--008-299
Ford-------138---5/2---71.4--1/0--014-493
Lowenstein-157---7/6---53.8--1/1--000-000
Murray-----233---7/2---77.8--1/1--000-000
Roenicke---167---6/7---46.2--2/1--011-976
Singleton--257---0/1---00.0--2/1--007-782

--------------------------------------------------------

Hoffman-------153---0/4--00.0--1/1--000-000
Jurak----------13---0/0--00.0--1/0--153-846
Miller--------197---5/6--45.5--1/1--000-000
Nichols-------102---5/3--62.5--2/0--039-216
Remy----------335--16/9--64.0--2/1--005-970
Stapleton-----171---2/4--33.3--2/1--011-696

----------------------------------------------------------

Cabell------179---15/6--71.4--1/1--000-000
Gibson------123---9/7---56.3--3/1--032-520
Herndon-----219---12/9--57.1--4/1--027-397
Johnson------79---7/4---63.6--1/1--000-000
Lemon-------201---1/4---20.0--1/1--000-000
Miller-------12---0/3---00.0--2/0--333-333
Trammell----185---19/8--70.4--2/1--010-811
Whitaker----261---11/3--78.6--1/0--007-663
Wilson------129---2/3---40.0--1/1--000-000

--------------------------------------------------

Collins------132---13/8--61.9--1/0--015-152
Griffey------212---10/4--71.4--2/0--018-868
Mumphrey-----232---11/3--78.6--1/0--008-621
Randolph-----271---16/9--64.0--2/0--014-760

-------------------------------------------------------

Castillo------45---0/0--00.0--1/0--044-444
Craig---------48---3/1--75.0--1/1--000-000
Dilone-------152--33/5--86.8--2/0--026-316
Dybzinski-----97---3/5--37.5--2/1--020-619
Fischlin-----143---9/5--64.3--2/2--000-000
Hargrove-----312---2/2--50.0--2/0--012-821
Hayes--------165--32/13-71.1--3/2--012-121
Manning------230--12/8--60.0--1/1--000-000
Milbourne----120--2/5---28.6--1/0--016-667
Thornton-----242--6/7---46.2--1/1--000-000

------------------------------------------------------------

Barfield------126---1/4---20.0--2/1--015-873
Garcia--------261---54/20-73.0--3/0--022-989
Griffin-------180---10/8--55.6--2/1--011-111
T.Johnson------57---3/13--18.8--2/1--035-088
Moseby--------152---11/7--61.1--4/0--052-632
Nordhagen------77----0/2--00.0--1/0--025-974
Revering-------57----0/3--00.0--1/1--000-000
Upshaw--------225----8/8--50.0--2/1--008-889
Powell---------92----4/4--50.0--1/1--000-000

END AL EAST

*********************************************************************

Baylor------232---10/4---71.4---2/0---017-241
Carew-------306---10/17--37.0---2/2---000-000
DeCinces----270----7/5---58.3---1/1---000-000
Foli--------172----2/4---33.3---2/0---023-256
Grich-------238----3/3---50.0---1/0---008-403
ReJackson---195----4/5---44.4---1/0---010-256
Lynn--------194----7/8---46.7---1/0---010-309

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aikens-----167---0/1---00.0---1/0---011-976
Concepcion--72---2/1---66.7---1/0---027-777
Martin-----157---1/1---50.0---1/0---012-739
McRae------260---4/4---50.0---1/0---007-692
Otis-------203---9/5---64.3---1/1---009-852
Poquette----21---1/0--100.0---1/0---095-238
Slaught-----63---0/0---00.0---1/0---031-746
Washington-184--23/7---76.7---3/2---010-870
Wathan-----189--36/9---80.0---7/3---042-328
Werth-------40--0/0----00.0---1/0---050-000
White------207--10/7---58.8---2/1---009-662
Wilson-----266--37/11--77.1---4/4---000-000

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Almon------114---10/8---55.6---1/1---000-000
Bernazard--272---11/0---100.0--3/0---022-059
Dillard------6----0/1----00.0--1/1---000-000
Fisk-------215----17/2---89.5--2/1---009-302
Kemp-------261----7/7----50.0--5/2---022-989
R.Law------180----36/10--78.3--3/0---033-333
V.Law------143----4/2----66.7--2/0---027-972
LeFlore----129----28/14--66.7--5/4---015-504
Nyman-------26-----3/2---60.0--1/1---000-000
Paciorek---173-----3/3---50.0--1/0---011-561

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Brown-------100---28/6---82.4---5/4---020-000
Castillo----241----2/8---20.0---2/1---008-299
Cowens------208---11/7---61.1---2/1---009-615
J.Cruz------186---46/13--80.0---5/4---010-753
T.Cruz------121---2/10---16.7---1/1---000-000
Edler--------43----4/2---66.7---1/1---000-000
Henderson---130----2/5---28.6---3/1---030-769
Maler--------59----0/0---00.0---1/0---033-898
McHenry-------1----0/0---00.0---1/0---999-999
Serna--------59----0/5---00.0---1/0---033-898
Simpson-----127----8/14--36.4---3/3---000-000

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Armas---------180---2/2---50.0---2/1---011-111
Burroughs-----130---1/3---25.0---3/1---030-769
Gross---------172---3/1---75.0---1/0---011-627
Heath---------127---8/3---72.7---1/0---015-748
Henderson-----225--130/42-75.6--16/12--035-556
Klutts---------68---0/0---00.0---1/0---029-412
Lopes---------147--28/12--70.0---2/1---013-605
McKay----------69---6/1---85.7---1/0---028-986
Meyer---------144---1/1---50.0---1/0---013-889
Murphy--------249---26/8--76.5---2/1---008-032
Newman---------86----0/1--00.0---1/1---000-000
Phillips-------35----2/3--40.0---1/0---057-143
Stanley-------102----0/1--00.0---1/1---000-000

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bell--------259---5/4---55.6---1/0---007-722
Grubb-------155---0/3---00.0---1/0---012-903
Mazzilli-----81---11/6--64.7---1/1---000-000
Parrish-----186---5/2---71.4---2/0---021-505
Richardt----147---9/1---90.0---1/0---013-605
Sample------169---10/2--83.3---2/0---023-669
Wright------243---3/7---30.0---2/2---000-000

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Brunansky-----225---1/2---33.3---1/1---000-000
Gaetti--------180---0/4---00.0---1/1---000-000
Hatcher--------87---0/2---00.0---1/1---022-989
Hrbek---------246---3/1---75.0---1/0---008-130
Mitchell------209---8/9---47.1---2/2---019-139
Ward----------213---13/1--92.9---1/0---009-390
Washington----192---3/3---50.0---2/1---010-417

END AMERICAN LEAGUE

**********************************************************************

Hernandez-----316---19/11---63.3---2/1---006-329
Herr----------225---25/12---67.6---3/1---017-778
Iorg-----------92---0/1-----00.0---1/1---000-000
Lahti-----------3---0/1-----00.0---1/1---000-000
McGee---------161---24/12---66.7---9/4---062-112
Oberkfell-----200---11/9----55.0---2/0---020-000
Ramsey---------78----6/5----54.5---2/1---025-641
L.Smith-------216---68/26---72.3---6/3---027-778
O.Smith-------242---25/5----83.3---2/1---008-264

-------------------------------------------------------------------

DeJesus-----216---14/4---77.8---2/0---018-519
Dernier-----140---42/12--77.8---3/1---028-571
Diaz--------192----3/6---33.3---1/1---000-000
Gross--------76----4/3---57.1---1/0---026-316
Maddox------165----7/5---58.3---1/1---000-000
Robinson-----19----1/1---50.0---1/0---105-263
Rose--------321----8/8---50.0---1/0---006-231
Ruthven-------9----0/1---00.0---1/1---000-000
Trillo------245----8/10--44.4---3/1---016-327
Vukovich----150----2/9---18.2---2/0---026-667

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Cromartie-----195---3/0---100.0---3/0---030-769
Dawson--------215--39/10--79.6----6/4---018-605
Flynn----------69---0/2---00.0----1/0---028-986
Francona-------60---2/3---40.0----1/1---000-000
Oliver--------357---5/2---71.4----1/0---005-602
Raines--------263--78/16--83.0---10/10--000-000
Scott----------10---5/0--100.0----1/0---200-000
White----------40---3/3---50.0----1/1---000-000

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Berra-------169---6/6---50.0---5/2---035-503
Easler------200---1/1---50.0---1/0---010-000
Lacy--------162--40/15--72.7---3/2---012-346
Moreno------212--60/26--69.8---8/5---014-151
Ray---------274--16/7---69.6---4/0---029-197
Rhoden-------29---0/0---00.0---1/0---068-966
Robinson-----24---0/1---00.0---1/1---000-000

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Buckner------282---15/5----75.0---2/2---000-000
Durham-------233---28/14---66.7---2/1---008-584
Hall----------32----0/1----00.0---2/1---062-500
Henderson----101----6/5----54.5---1/0---019-802
Kennedy------117----1/4----20.0---1/1---000-000
Moreland-----164----0/6----00.0---2/1---012-195
Sandberg-----233----32/12--72.7---6/3---025-751
Wills--------167----35/10--77.8---3/3---000-000
Woods--------104----3/3----50.0---3/1---038-462
Molinaro------19----1/1----50.0---1/0---105-263

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Bailor-------182---20/3----87.0---1/1---000-000
Brooks-------169----6/3----66.7---1/1---000-000
Gardenhire---145----5/6----45.4---1/1---000-000
Giles---------55----6/1----85.7---1/0---036-364
Hodges-------106----4/3----57.1---1/0---018-868
Stearns------148----17/7---70.8---2/0---027-027
Wilson-------239----58/16--78.4---6/4---016-736

-----------------------------------------------------------------

END NL EAST

*********************************************************************

Butler-------102----21/8---72.4---2/1---019-608
Hubbard------240----4/3----57.1---1/0---008-333
Johnson-------35----0/1----00.0---1/1---000-000
Murphy-------251----23/11--67.6---2/2---000-000
Royster------145----14/6---70.0---2/2---000-000
Washington---215----33/10--76.7---2/2---000-000

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Cey----------234---3/2---60.0---1/0---008-547
Guerrero-----214---22/5--81.5---2/2---000-000
Landreaux----207---31/10-75.6---4/0---038-647
Sax----------250---49/19-72.0---8/2---048-000
Scioscia-----148----2/0-100.0---2/0---027-027
Thomas--------65----2/3--40.0---1/0---030-769

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Barr-------12----0/0---00.0----1/0---166-667
Davis-----219---24/13--64.9----5/2---027-397
Laskey-----19----0/1---00.0----1/1---000-000
Leonard----96---18/5---78.3----1/1---000-000
Morgan----272---24/4---85.7----2/1---007-353
O'Malley--138---0/3----00.0----1/0---014-493
Venable----60---9/3----75.0----1/0---033-333

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Edwards-------23----0/0----00.0----1/0---086-957
Hinshaw--------5----0/0----00.0----1/0---400-000
Jones--------184---18/15---54.5----6/4---021-739
Kennedy------219----1/0---100.0----1/0---009-132
Lefebvre------93----0/0----00.0----1/0---021-505
Perkins------136----2/1----66.7----1/0---014-706
Pittman-------72----8/3----72.7----1/0---027-778
Richards-----187---30/20---60.0----5/3---021-390
Salazar------146---32/9----78.0----4/2---027-397
Swisher-------15---0/0-----00.0----1/0---133-333
Templeton----192---27/16---61.4----3/2---010-417
Welsh---------22----0/1----00.0----1/1---000-000
Wiggins-------89---33/6----84.6----4/4---000-000

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Ashby-----141----2/0----100.0----1/0----014-184
Cruz------213---21/11----65.6----3/1----018-779
Garner----219---24/13----64.9----4/2----018-265
Heep-------80----0/2-----00.0----2/0----050-000
Knicely----37----0/1-----00.0----1/1----000-000
Knight----275----2/5-----28.6----3/2----007-273
Loucks-----24----4/1-----80.0----1/1----000-000
Puhl------220----17/9----65.4----1/0----009-091
Scott-----180----18/4----81.8----1/0----011-111
Thon------216----37/8----82.2----5/3----018-519

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Bench--------160----1/2-----33.3----1/1---000-000
Cedeno-------194---16/11----59.3----2/1---010-309
Householder--132---17/11----60.7----2/1---015-152
Lawless-------80---16/5-----76.2----2/2---000-000
Milner-------173---18/12----60.0----3/1---023-121
Oester-------228----5/6-----45.5----3/0---026-316
Pastore-------15----0/0-----00.0----1/0---133-333
Soto----------26----0/0-----00.0----1/0---076-923
Trevino------150----3/1-----75.0----1/0---013-333

END NATIONAL LEAGUE

***************************************************************

ALL 26 TEAM PICKOFF STATS FROM 1982 READY TO PRINT

***************************************************************

Key:

Player name--SBO--SB/CS--SB%---PO/PCS--formulated pickoff number

******************************************************************

Strat-O-Matic SAVD optional rule 29.2, section B on page 13 of the rule book does not individualize pickoff ratings for either runners or pitchers.

My pickoff formula and pickoff ratings posted above replace rule 29.2

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is my formula for pickoffs:

Use SBO (Stolen Base Opportunities) recorded in Baseball Reference website. SBO is defined as base stealing opportunities when second base and third base are open to a baserunner.

Take the player's PO (times picked off) total and subtract his PCS (picked off caught stealing) total from that. We do this because the PCS is already incorporated into the player's CS (caught stealing) values used by S-O-M to formulate their supplemental stealing success ratings.

This total (PO minus PCS) gives us the pickoff value we need to accurately represent the player. It is the separated stat we are looking for.

For clarity, I term that (PO minus PCS) to be the player's SPN (Separated Pickoff Number, which is to be used to formulate his PN--(Pickoff Number)--to be used in game simulation).

The formula for PN (Pickoff Number):

Multiply the player's SPN by two.

Divide that number by the player's SBO.

That percentage (formatted for d1000) represents that player's PN.

When a qualifying player is presented with SBO, proceed with POR (Pickoff Roll). If d1000 result is within his pickoff range, runner has chance to be picked off.

We then use a d20 and use 1-10 as the range for the starting point for pickoff probability (50/50 odds, WHICH IS WHY WE MULTIPLIED HIS TIMES PICKED OFF BY TWO--THIS IS HOW WE COMPENSATE. I formulate it that way to incorporate pitcher hold).

We then incorporate the pitcher hold factor to adjust the safe-or-out range. +9 hold would result in a safe-diving-back-to-first range of 1-19 (10--the starting point--plus 9). -6 hold would result in 1-4 safe range at the other extreme, as an example.

***********************************************************************

Why optional S-O-M Rule 29.2, section B was not satisfying:

(1) It did not individualize pickoff values for runners and did not account for pitcher hold.

(2) The five percent chance of testing a runner's safe range for diving back to first base on pickoff attempts (upon rolling for runner's good lead--per rule 29.2) is prohibative in many cases.

(3) Their rule did not apply to runners who do not get held on base, many of whom got picked off at least once during the season.

Examples: 1982 Tony Bernazard, whose steal ratings are *3/-(20-6)

Bernazard stole 11 bases without being caught. He was picked off three times (his SPN--Separated Pickoff Number--PO minus PCS--three minus zero).

His chance of obtaining good lead is approx. 5.6 percent, about the same as his five percent chance of getting tested for pickoff with a 1-6 safe range--his back steal number.

So using S-O-M Rule 29.2 would result in 1982 Bernazard not bothering to attempt steals because the math would not support it.

Instead, using my rule, 1982 Bernazard would--upon obtaining a stolen base opportunity--be required to roll d1000 and have his picked off range of 022-059 tested (three times picked off multiplied by two, then divided by 272 stolen base opportunities--approx. 2.2 percent, which will average out in probability to one half of that when completing formula).

A better example is 1982 Reggie Smith because he was not picked off while stealing seven bases without being caught. His ratings are the same as 1982 Bernazard---*3/-(20-6). Many players fall into that area.

*******************************************************************


















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