1974 Autoplay Analysis | Showing Comments:

Posts: 2337
7/20/17 12:31 PM Quote
Replay after first two monthes of 1974 American League

I will focus my analysis on just the stolen base factor for now.

Nearing the end of May 1974 American League games played. 5012 innings have been completed at this point. 17448 and two-thirds innings were recorded in 1974 American League games for the entire 1974 season. So that means 28.7 percent of 1974 American League innings have been simulated.

So far there have been 356 stolen bases and 106 caught stealing.

Prorated for complete season based on innings played, 1239 bases would be stolen in simulation. 1234 were stolen in real life. Very close.

Prorated caught stealing would be 369, far short of the 758 in real life.

Stolen Base percentage in this replay is over 77% thus far. Actual was approx. 62%. Huge difference.

Strat-O-Matic CTO (Chief Technology Officer) Bob Winberry should include MAS (Must Attempt Steal) factor as an EDIT option within his computer game engine. (See "1982 Bad Base Stealer List" in Baseball discussion).

No info has been included about pickoffs in this replay. There should be about 55 pickoffs thus far. There were 193 for 1974 American League at season's end. (See "Pickoffs" in Baseball section).

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